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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (XNYS:MAA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MAA
Name:
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
Sector:
179.62M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. H. Eric Bolton
Total Employees:
2,429
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC.(MAA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
164.22
One Month Price Target:
$164.9
Six Month Price Target :
$168.33
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$172.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$163.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$164.88
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$157.35
This week:
$148.86
This month :
$133.5
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
18.96B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
115.44M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.63%
-16.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$196.09
$181.40
$132.35
$147.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$176.62
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$173.49
$151.78
$154.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MAA
Sharpe Ratio:
2.18%
Comparison:
MAA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 37.36% higher than the industry
& is -4.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MAA
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.11% below industry average
Classification:
MAA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.36
Statistical test of Returns:
MAA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.06%
Weekly Volatility:
4.61%
Monthly Volatility:
9.23%
Yearly Volatility:
31.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -44.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.18%
Weekly VaR:
-9.35%
Monthly VaR:
-18.71%
How Much Can the price of
MAA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-64.81%
This translates to price declining to:
$138.06
This translates to price declining to:
$57.80
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MAA is a 32.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MAA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.798
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.128
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.411
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.626
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.777
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.152
Beta is -35.40% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is -5.25% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is 3.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 297% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MAA
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -3.31% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.56%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.09
Annual revenue growth rate is 72.22% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.15
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.51%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 186.81% higher than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 11.40%
Equity growth rate per share is -375.91% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$9.00
Valuation Analysis Today of
MAA
P/E Ratio:
32.27
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
155.43
P/E ratio is -79.24% lower than main peers & is -51.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $341.53
MAA is -51.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $92.76
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $60.38
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
14.01
Price to sales ratio is 19.50% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.09
Price to free cash flow: 24.98
Price to free cash flow ratio is -22.77% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
138.32%
Net income growth rate is -112.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.15%
Dividend yeild: 2.57%
Previous Dividend: $1.09
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.09
Previous Dividend: $4.22
Expected next dividend best case: $1.11
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.17%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 14/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 22/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$1.09
2021-10-14--$1.03
2021-04-14--$1.03
2022-01-13--$1.09
2021-07-14--$1.03
2021-03-12--$1.06
Dividend growth rate is -104.32% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1.02%
Debt to assets ratio:
45.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -11.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.65
Interest coverage ratio is 154.13% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-1.01%
Annual debt growth is -77% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.685
Statistical significance of correlation:
MAA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is 8.69% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.055
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.066
Kurtosis
13.064
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.004
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MAA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
98%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.59%
Operating profit margin is -12.57% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
98%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.25%
Effective tax rate is 68.72% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.90% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is 52.77% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.01
Current ratio is -99.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.11%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
557.1K
Each employee generates -31% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
427.9K
Each employee generates -27% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
247.1K
Each employee generates 12% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
73.9K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MAA
Ke Holdings Inc (XNYS:BEKE)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
DUKE REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:DRE)
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:ESS)
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
VENTAS, INC. (XNYS:VTR)
NRZ-PC
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�29%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.35B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
910.63M
442.45M
-
99.02M
99.02M
-
286.84M
385.86M
-
156.33M
268.86M
1.04B
359.75M
600.18M
625.35M
14.08M
600.18M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 133738.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
6.64M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4023332.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 4477134.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.22B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
179.62M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
60.37M
-
60.37M
-
-
-
60.37M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
11.14B
11.20B
-
4.54B
-
-
-
4.54B
-
531.35M
531.35M
-
5.07B
28.01M
- 1268827.00K
- 10860.0K
7.17B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
993.33M
5.92B
10.99B
-
-
- 60371.0K
-
- 83532.00K
- 83532.00K
-
-
-
- 922.00K
- 153143.00K
- 154065.00K
-
- 57974.00K
72.62M
130.60M
179.62M
-
179.62M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MAA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$173.29
$403.74
$423.93
$445.13
$467.39