_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mgm Resorts International (XNYS:MGM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MGM
Name:
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:MGM)
Sector:
318.90M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. William Hornbuckle
Total Employees:
42,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.68% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL(MGM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.86
One Month Price Target:
$33.25
Six Month Price Target :
$35.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$33.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.03
This week:
$26.53
This month :
$20.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.92B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
393.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.11%
-33.61%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$46.00
$39.96
$19.72
$25.76
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$36.70
$27.71
$29.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MGM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.02%
Comparison:
MGM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -27.82% lower than the industry
& is -11.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MGM
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.89%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -32.62% below industry average
Classification:
MGM, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
MGM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.24%
Weekly Volatility:
9.49%
Monthly Volatility:
18.97%
Yearly Volatility:
65.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.49%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.62%
Weekly VaR:
-19.27%
Monthly VaR:
-38.54%
How Much Can the price of
MGM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$22.02
This translates to price declining to:
$4.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MGM is a 172.02% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 133.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MGM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.207
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.707
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.454
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.346
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.285
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.395
Beta is 51.50% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is 1.71% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.40%
Sustainable growth rate is -65.31% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.050
Alpha is -69.03% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 320% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MGM
Equity cost of capital:
0.176
Equity cost of capital is 1.40% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.79%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.68%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.68%
WACC is -4.17% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -133.73% below industry average
EPS:
$3.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-14.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -189.92% lower than the Resorts & Casinos industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.98
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -97.91%
Equity growth rate per share is 91.01% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$56.77
EBITDA per share
$9.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
MGM
P/E Ratio:
4.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.05
P/E ratio is -61.84% lower than main peers & is -89.02% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $129.04
MGM is -74.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $3.78
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.03
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.19
Price to sales ratio is -52.59% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.31
Price to free cash flow: 11.02
Price to free cash flow ratio is 291.39% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
205.72%
Net income growth rate is -412.50% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.07%
Dividend yeild: 0.02%
Previous Dividend: $0.00
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.00
Previous Dividend: $0.01
Expected next dividend best case: $0.05
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.04
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.03
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -10.29%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.00
2021-12-09--$0.00
2021-06-09--$0.00
2022-03-09--$0.00
2021-09-09--$0.00
2021-03-09--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -79.07% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
440.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
411.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
57.74%
Net debt to assets ratio:
53.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.78
Interest coverage ratio is -9.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.64
Statistical significance of correlation:
MGM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 12.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
14.64
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.078
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MGM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.17%
Operating profit margin is 229.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
195%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.12%
Effective tax rate is -58.57% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is 47.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
1.25
Current ratio is -43.42% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-40.8
Cash conversion cycle is -198.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.49%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.2K
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
91.2K
Each employee generates 29% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
37.3K
Each employee generates 72% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.6K
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
812.7K
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MGM
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD. (XNYS:RCL)
LB Group Co., Ltd. (XSHE:002601)
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YUMC)
GENUINE PARTS COMPANY (XNYS:GPC)
CARMAX, INC. (XNYS:KMX)
NVR, Inc. (XNYS:NVR)
INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY (XNYS:IP)
WAYFAIR INC. (XNYS:W)
DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNYS:DRI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�38%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
10.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.57B
5.31B
-
3.19B
3.19B
-
1.15B
4.35B
-
800.39M
1.15B
3.83B
2.63B
1.57B
1.82B
311.77M
1.57B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
288.64M
Differed Income Tax :
1.07M
Stock Based Compensation :
23.34M
Change in Working Capital :
- 51292.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 10385.00K
Other Working Capital:
39.20M
Other Non-Cash Items:
193.52M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
420.48M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 129177.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
2.72B
-
2.72B
828.13M
102.05M
865.66M
4.51B
25.58B
3.47B
3.56B
1.01B
-
513.62M
34.14B
-
38.65B
281.23M
1.25B
-
-
2.07B
3.60B
22.32B
410.98M
25.17B
-
28.77B
4.31M
4.32B
- 22007.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.92B
5.07B
33.84B
-
23.57B
20.8B
-
- 108206.00K
- 237383.00K
- 1000000.00K
-
- 1001972.00K
- 1090.00K
- 162525.00K
- 2165587.00K
- 1355.00K
- 1983843.00K
3.22B
5.20B
420.48M
- 101583.00K
318.90M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MGM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.38
$39.26
$44.83
$51.20
$58.47