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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (XNYS:MTD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MTD
Name:
METTLER-TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:MTD)
Sector:
71.69M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. Oliver Filliol
Total Employees:
15,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -37.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF METTLER-TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC.(MTD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
1195.02
One Month Price Target:
$1202.69
Six Month Price Target :
$1241.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$1287.1
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$1191.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$1200.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1143.63
This week:
$1080.11
This month :
$965.21
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
27.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.51M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.42%
-10.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1,433.26
$1,322.58
$956.78
$1,067.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$1,286.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1,262.92
$1,103.19
$1,127.12
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MTD
Sharpe Ratio:
3.72%
Comparison:
MTD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 47.67% higher than the industry
& ratio is 63.14% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MTD
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.44%
Monthly returns:
1.77%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -24.09% below industry average
Classification:
MTD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.3
Statistical test of Returns:
MTD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.14%
Weekly Volatility:
4.78%
Monthly Volatility:
9.56%
Yearly Volatility:
33.10%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.68% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.30%
Weekly VaR:
-9.62%
Monthly VaR:
-19.23%
How Much Can the price of
MTD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-66.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$1,003.92
This translates to price declining to:
$398.92
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MTD is a 35.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.28% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -44.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MTD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.786
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.111
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.064
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.821
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.689
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.794
Beta is 44.42% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -2.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
297.03%
Sustainable growth rate is 462.33% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.102
Alpha is -38.90% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 649% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MTD
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -2.11% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.90%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.90%
WACC is -31.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$169.34
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
318.03
Annual revenue growth rate is -67.94% below industry average
EPS:
$34.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.80%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -52.32% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$32.08
-
-
Debt per share
$78.50
EBITDA per share
$50.38
Valuation Analysis Today of
MTD
P/E Ratio:
33.67
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.18
P/E ratio is -9.45% lower than main peers & is -9.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,266.23
MTD is -5.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.06
Price to sales ratio is -25.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
318.03
Price to free cash flow: 37.25
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.70% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
63.54%
Net income growth rate is -127.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2089.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2075.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
52.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
52.30%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 8.34% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
25.13
Interest coverage ratio is -189.61% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
26.04%
Annual debt growth is -75% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 21.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.719
Statistical significance of correlation:
MTD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 47.44% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
3.901
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.134
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MTD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
233%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
26.83%
Operating profit margin is -123.85% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
233%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.80%
Effective tax rate is -2.05% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
938.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 4365.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
23.64%
Return on assets (ROA) is -108.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.1x
Current Ratio:
1.2
Current ratio is -75.76% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
23.3
Cash conversion cycle is -53.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
244.3K
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
72.7K
Each employee generates 142% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
50.9K
Each employee generates 218% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.6K
Each employee generates -311% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
131.2K
Each employee generates -311% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 21.17%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -1276.01% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MTD
VEEVA SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:VEEV)
RESMED INC. (XNYS:RMD)
Koninklijke Philips NV (XNYS:PHG)
Alcon Inc. (XNYS:ALC)
WEST PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES, INC. (XNYS:WST)
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORPORATION (XNYS:ABC)
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (XNYS:TAK)
LABORATORY CORPORATION OF AMERICA HOLDINGS (XNYS:LH)
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:BAX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�4%
Hold�33%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.81B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
2.22B
173.52M
-
957.54M
-
65.80M
1.20B
-
45.11M
111.71M
1.13B
1.02B
793.32M
976.95M
183.63M
793.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.48M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1096.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
4.51M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115061.00K
Accounts Receivables:
23.29M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
90.84M
Investments in PP&E:
- 19151.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 9704.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
116.95M
-
116.95M
617.88M
446.49M
128.57M
1.31B
787.47M
650.12M
305.08M
-
38.92M
264.71M
2.05B
-
3.36B
259.35M
105.26M
148.93M
215.68M
507.12M
1.09B
1.77B
352.19M
2.18B
-
3.27B
448.00K
6.03B
- 250874.0K
- 5695877.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.79B
84.57M
3.36B
-
1.87B
1.8B
-
21.74M
- 7112.00K
- 478479.00K
-
- 275000.00K
-
688.99M
- 64485.00K
- 855.00K
18.39M
116.95M
98.56M
90.84M
- 19151.00K
71.69M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MTD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,484.95
$1,599.37
$1,722.60
$1,855.33
$1,998.28