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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Metlife, Inc. (XNYS:MET) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MET
Name:
METLIFE, INC. (XNYS:MET)
Sector:
1.95B
Industry:
Insurance�Life
CEO:
Mr. Michel Khalaf
Total Employees:
43,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 252.84% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF METLIFE, INC.(MET) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�LIFE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
65.06
One Month Price Target:
$65.44
Six Month Price Target :
$67.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$69.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$64.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$65.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$61.59
This week:
$57.3
This month :
$49.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
51.88B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
797.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.34%
-16.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$81.15
$73.72
$48.97
$56.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$71.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$69.72
$58.79
$60.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MET
Sharpe Ratio:
2.55%
Comparison:
MET, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 96.92% higher than the industry
& ratio is 11.71% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MET
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.38%
Monthly returns:
1.52%
Yearly returns:
12.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 49.63% above industry average
Classification:
MET, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
MET has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.89%
Monthly Volatility:
11.78%
Yearly Volatility:
40.79%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.33%
Weekly VaR:
-11.92%
Monthly VaR:
-23.84%
How Much Can the price of
MET
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$51.91
This translates to price declining to:
$11.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MET is a 68.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MET
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.817
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.156
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.863
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.859
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.021
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.169
Beta is -10.97% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.194
Beta is -12.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.28%
Sustainable growth rate is -13.97% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.079
Alpha is 840.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 505% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MET
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -9.25% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.52%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
5.11%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
5.11%
WACC is -9.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$82.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is -59.80% below industry average
EPS:
$7.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.36%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 32.28% higher than the Insurance�Life industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$15.36
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 12.52%
Equity growth rate per share is 64.63% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$17.36
EBITDA per share
$11.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
MET
P/E Ratio:
16.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.49
P/E ratio is 19.90% higher than main peers & is 66.53% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $74.90
MET is -13.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $39.40
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $21.91
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.79
Price to sales ratio is -26.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 4.24
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
42.16%
Net income growth rate is 84.74% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.93%
Dividend yeild: 2.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.94
Expected next dividend best case: $0.52
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.48
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.47
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.31%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 14/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/10/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-09--$0.50
2021-11-08--$0.48
2021-05-10--$0.48
2022-02-07--$0.48
2021-08-09--$0.48
2021-02-04--$0.46
Dividend growth rate is -60.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.82% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.23
Interest coverage ratio is 144.86% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.96%
Annual debt growth is -74% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.769
Statistical significance of correlation:
MET has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.695
Stock price is 10.65% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.695
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.04
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.061
Kurtosis
9.867
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.237
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MET
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.31%
Operating profit margin is -438.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
19.46%
Effective tax rate is -4.20% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.60%
Return on equity (ROE) is 300.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.94%
Return on assets (ROA) is 11.82% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
82.46
Current ratio is 227.27% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
218.2K
Each employee generates -32% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
158.2K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
45.4K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
221.2K
Each employee generates -15% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MET
ING Groep NV (XNYS:ING)
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION (XNYS:WBK)
CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE (XNYS:CM)
SCHW-PD
AEB
Aon plc (XNYS:AON)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC (XNYS:LYG)
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. (XNYS:AIG)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�25%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
66.01B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
4.35B
4.35B
-
-
-
-
917.00M
-
9.38B
8.13B
6.80B
8.55B
1.66B
6.80B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.95B
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.95B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 240000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
23.49B
3.15B
26.63B
-
-
-
26.63B
-
9.51B
-
467.13B
-
- 467134000.00K
9.51B
707.16B
724.28B
-
323.00M
39.00M
-
-
323.00M
13.85B
650.19B
669.72B
-
670.05B
12.00M
41.41B
- 1912000.0K
14.46B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
59.06B
53.97B
724.01B
470.28B
14.17B
- 9317000.0K
-
- 186000.00K
- 426000.00K
-
-
- 940000.00K
- 63000.00K
2.95B
1.95B
- 84000.00K
3.46B
23.51B
20.05B
1.95B
-
1.95B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MET
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$69.96
$111.02
$118.79
$127.10
$135.99