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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Meta Platforms, Inc. (XNAS:META) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FB
Name:
Meta Platforms, Inc. (XNAS:META)
Sector:
8.64B
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Mark Zuckerberg
Total Employees:
83,553
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -144.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF META PLATFORMS, INC.(META) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
160.32
One Month Price Target:
$161.48
Six Month Price Target :
$167.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$174.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$159.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$161.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$150.86
This week:
$139.17
This month :
$118.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
426.08B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.69B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.59%
-26.39%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$204.25
$184.25
$116.39
$136.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.74
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$173.47
$142.84
$147.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FB
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.01%
Comparison:
FB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -134.00% lower than the industry
& is -100.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FB
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.04%
Monthly returns:
0.17%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 1425.26% above industry average
Classification:
FB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
FB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.88%
Weekly Volatility:
6.43%
Monthly Volatility:
12.87%
Yearly Volatility:
44.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 3.10% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.90%
Weekly VaR:
-13.20%
Monthly VaR:
-26.39%
How Much Can the price of
FB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-91.42%
This translates to price declining to:
$123.05
This translates to price declining to:
$13.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FB is a 86.26% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.74% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.106
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.564
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.193
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.178
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.683
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.666
Beta is 94.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is -7.26% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.71%
Sustainable growth rate is -9.45% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.100
Alpha is -20.73% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -636% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FB
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -5.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.07%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.43%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.43%
WACC is 5.33% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$44.53
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.5
Annual revenue growth rate is -30.84% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
28.56%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 14.09% higher than the Internet Content & Information industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$16.90
-
-
Debt per share
$4.80
EBITDA per share
$19.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
FB
P/E Ratio:
13.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35.64
P/E ratio is -62.71% lower than main peers & is -64.96% lower than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.6
Price to sales ratio is -29.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.5
Price to free cash flow: 9.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -67.85% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
82.86%
Net income growth rate is -204.76% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.01% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
696.26
Interest coverage ratio is 5660.40% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
30.21%
Annual debt growth is -93% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.77%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.668
Statistical significance of correlation:
FB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is 41.10% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
13.071
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.906
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
36.68%
Operating profit margin is 6398.70% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
321%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.45%
Effective tax rate is 27.97% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.30%
Return on equity (ROE) is -450.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
22.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1363.53% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.81
Current ratio is -21.48% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-22.3
Cash conversion cycle is -133.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates 60% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
633.3K
Each employee generates 505% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
446.9K
Each employee generates 906% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
103.3K
Each employee generates 3% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates 3% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 33.65%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -672.10% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FB
NETFLIX, INC. (XNAS:NFLX)
COMCAST CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCSA)
T-MOBILE US, INC. (XNAS:TMUS)
AIRBNB, INC. (XNAS:ABNB)
NETEASE, INC. (XNAS:NTES)
Baidu, Inc. (XNAS:BIDU)
ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS, INC. (XNAS:ZM)
ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. (XNAS:ATVI)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�71%
Buy�100%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
119.67B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
23.52B
96.14B
27.17B
10.57B
25.08B
14.51B
-
52.24B
419.00M
76.00M
8.15B
52.92B
43.90B
37.34B
44.69B
7.35B
37.34B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.16B
Differed Income Tax :
- 563000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.50B
Change in Working Capital :
2.74B
Accounts Receivables:
2.56B
Other Working Capital:
- 52000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 221000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.08B
Investments in PP&E:
- 5441000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 853000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4068000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
14.89B
29.00B
43.89B
11.39B
-
3.99B
59.27B
73.82B
19.92B
910.00M
6.78B
-
3.52B
104.95B
-
164.22B
3.25B
1.16B
-
520.00M
16.16B
21.09B
12.89B
7.01B
19.90B
-
40.99B
-
67.71B
- 1996000.0K
57.51B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
75.77B
123.23B
164.22B
35.78B
14.05B
- 833000.0K
5.47B
116.00M
- 4779000.00K
- 233000.00K
-
- 9506000.00K
-
- 921000.00K
- 10660000.00K
- 149000.00K
- 1512000.00K
15.35B
16.87B
14.08B
- 5441000.00K
8.64B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$130.72
$142.11
$154.50
$167.97
$182.61