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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mesa Laboratories, Inc. (XNAS:MLAB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MLAB
Name:
MESA LABORATORIES, INC. (XNAS:MLAB)
Sector:
8.94M
Industry:
Scientific & Technical Instruments
CEO:
Mr. Gary Owens
Total Employees:
681
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -124.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MESA LABORATORIES, INC.(MLAB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
163.97
One Month Price Target:
$164.5
Six Month Price Target :
$167.18
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$170.38
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$163.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$164.52
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$156.66
This week:
$147.62
This month :
$131.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
831.09M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
5.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.16%
-8.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$197.93
$182.62
$130.01
$145.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$174.36
$150.27
$153.58
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MLAB
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.89%
Comparison:
MLAB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -239.41% lower than the industry
& is -183.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MLAB
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.64%
Yearly returns:
11.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -169.32% below industry average
Classification:
MLAB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
MLAB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.16%
Weekly Volatility:
4.82%
Monthly Volatility:
9.64%
Yearly Volatility:
33.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 138.78% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.46%
Weekly VaR:
-9.97%
Monthly VaR:
-19.94%
How Much Can the price of
MLAB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-69.07%
This translates to price declining to:
$134.45
This translates to price declining to:
$50.72
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MLAB is a 40.72% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 20.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MLAB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.58
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.716
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.012
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.477
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.574
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.541
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.192
Beta is -51.16% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.276
Beta is -54.38% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -96.12% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.148
Alpha is 1695.33% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -943% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MLAB
Equity cost of capital:
0.071
Equity cost of capital is -39.97% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.82%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.82%
WACC is -41.12% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$34.67
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -65.57% below industry average
EPS:
$0.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.32%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -299.42% lower than the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.53
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.60%
Equity growth rate per share is -120.38% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$31.73
EBITDA per share
$6.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
MLAB
P/E Ratio:
631.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
201.48
P/E ratio is 213.56% higher than main peers & is 1356.74% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $15.18
MLAB is 980.25% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $23.59
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $8.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.73
Price to sales ratio is -2.89% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.19
Price to free cash flow: 25.11
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-183.76%
Net income growth rate is 575.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 44.04%
Dividend yeild: 0.39%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.64
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/04/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.16
2021-11-29--$0.16
2021-07-15--$0.16
2022-02-25--$0.16
2021-08-30--$0.16
2021-05-27--$0.16
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.28%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-26.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-17.47%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -41.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.37
Interest coverage ratio is -27.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.77%
Annual debt growth is -95% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.516
Statistical significance of correlation:
MLAB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.619
Stock price is -16.63% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.619
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.01
Kurtosis
3.239
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.048
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MLAB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
240%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.55%
Operating profit margin is -75.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
240%
Effective Tax Rate:
47.65%
Effective tax rate is 18.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.47%
Return on equity (ROE) is -97.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is -94.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
9.43
Current ratio is 299.91% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
72.1
Cash conversion cycle is 29.86% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
117.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
270.7K
Each employee generates -16% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
47.8K
Each employee generates -26% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
2.7K
Each employee generates -92% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
13.1K
Each employee generates 230% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
436.4K
Each employee generates 230% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 63.46%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2038.33% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MLAB
FARO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:FARO)
Paya Holdings Inc. (XNAS:PAYA)
STRATASYS LTD (XNAS:SSYS)
LORL
UPLAND SOFTWARE, INC. (XNAS:UPLD)
IMPINJ, INC. (XNAS:PI)
EVO PAYMENTS, INC. (XNAS:EVOP)
CAMTEK LTD (XNAS:CAMT)
AGILYSYS, INC. (XNAS:AGYS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
184.34M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
75.25M
109.09M
15.77M
60.31M
88.62M
28.31M
-
104.39M
-
3.89M
25.07M
32.53M
4.70M
1.87M
3.57M
1.70M
1.87M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.57M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.20M
Change in Working Capital :
1.43M
Accounts Receivables:
3.29M
Other Working Capital:
138.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 605.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.59M
Investments in PP&E:
- 653.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
275.71M
-
275.71M
20.58M
12.12M
6.90M
315.31M
21.95M
162.73M
109.68M
-
623.00K
2.20M
297.18M
-
612.49M
4.05M
-
-
8.94M
20.46M
33.45M
168.70M
530.00K
180.04M
-
213.49M
298.20M
79.31M
21.5M
-
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
179.63M
399.00M
612.49M
-
168.70M
- 107015.0K
-
-
- 653.00K
-
-
-
- 824.00K
1.09M
265.00K
2.64M
11.85M
275.71M
263.87M
9.59M
- 653.00K
8.94M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MLAB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$171.14
$177.84
$184.79
$192.02
$199.53