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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (XNAS:VIVO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VIVO
Name:
MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE, INC. (XNAS:VIVO)
Sector:
33.85M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Mr. John Kenny
Total Employees:
765
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -175.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MERIDIAN BIOSCIENCE, INC.(VIVO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
32.6
One Month Price Target:
$32.65
Six Month Price Target :
$32.9
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$32.47
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.09
This week:
$26.98
This month :
$21.36
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.40B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
43.75M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.86%
-22.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.24
$38.75
$20.96
$26.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$35.80
$28.21
$29.40
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VIVO
Sharpe Ratio:
6.46%
Comparison:
VIVO, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 156.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 183.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VIVO
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.30%
Monthly returns:
5.18%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 122.85% above industry average
Classification:
VIVO, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
VIVO has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.88%
Weekly Volatility:
8.67%
Monthly Volatility:
17.35%
Yearly Volatility:
60.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -81.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.71%
Weekly VaR:
-17.23%
Monthly VaR:
-34.46%
How Much Can the price of
VIVO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.64
This translates to price declining to:
$4.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VIVO is a 143.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 108.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.46% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VIVO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.27
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.507
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.718
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.242
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.675
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.591
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.538
Beta is -82.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -76.98% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
18.38%
Sustainable growth rate is -65.21% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.572
Alpha is 243.03% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3641% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VIVO
Equity cost of capital:
0.050
Equity cost of capital is -55.41% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.47%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is -46.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -61.57% below industry average
EPS:
$1.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
33.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 25.27% higher than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 5454.24% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$1.22
EBITDA per share
$2.22
Valuation Analysis Today of
VIVO
P/E Ratio:
33.24
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
876.86
P/E ratio is -96.21% lower than main peers & is -10.60% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $52.42
VIVO is -37.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.2
Price to sales ratio is -55.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.13
Price to free cash flow: 17.63
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
192.95%
Net income growth rate is -184.42% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
15.51%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-4.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-3.74%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -75.98% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
61.33
Interest coverage ratio is -318.65% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-6.64%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 15.74%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.271
Statistical significance of correlation:
VIVO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -44.53% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.05
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.112
Kurtosis
6.948
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.037
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VIVO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
234%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.75%
Operating profit margin is -121.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
234%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.42%
Effective tax rate is 11.65% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is -13.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is -105.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.08
Current ratio is -17.95% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
57.5
Cash conversion cycle is 15.77% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
443.5K
Each employee generates 19% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
127.1K
Each employee generates 323% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
81.6K
Each employee generates 410% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
44.2K
Each employee generates -2133% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
333.3K
Each employee generates -2133% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.77%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -142.60% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
VIVO
OPTIMIZERX CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRX)
VIEWRAY, INC. (XNAS:VRAY)
MESOBLAST LIMITED (XNAS:MESO)
SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC. (XNAS:STRO)
AMPHASTAR PHARMACEUTICALS INC (XNAS:AMPH)
Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd (XNAS:CNTB)
IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:IKNA)
OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:OLMA)
G1 THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GTHX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
339.29M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
139.82M
199.46M
24.08M
59.23M
87.70M
28.47M
5.60M
117.38M
- 12.00K
1.59M
16.19M
97.21M
80.59M
62.42M
79.44M
17.02M
62.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.18M
Differed Income Tax :
927.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.90M
Change in Working Capital :
13.85M
Accounts Receivables:
9.42M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 646.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
35.56M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1708.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
72.73M
-
72.73M
44.30M
74.20M
12.43M
203.65M
48.72M
114.71M
81.66M
-
8.81M
1.09M
254.99M
-
458.64M
16.29M
2.06M
4.87M
765.00K
30.83M
49.95M
53.53M
2.81M
63.48M
-
113.42M
-
196.04M
555.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
257.20M
345.22M
458.64M
-
55.59M
- 17143.0K
-
-
- 1708.00K
- 10000.00K
-
-
-
- 1087.00K
- 11087.00K
198.00K
22.96M
72.73M
49.77M
35.56M
- 1708.00K
33.85M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VIVO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.37
$457.64
$466.00
$474.52
$483.19