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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Meiragtx Holdings Plc (XNAS:MGTX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MGTX
Name:
MEIRAGTX HOLDINGS PLC (XNAS:MGTX)
Sector:
- 20758.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Alexandria Forbes
Total Employees:
333
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 29.00% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MEIRAGTX HOLDINGS PLC(MGTX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.94
One Month Price Target:
$9.03
Six Month Price Target :
$9.46
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.16
This week:
$7.21
This month :
$5.47
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
397.93M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.97%
-28.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.54
$10.91
$5.34
$6.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$10.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.03
$7.49
$7.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MGTX
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.02%
Comparison:
MGTX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -152.25% lower than the industry
& is -144.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MGTX
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.17%
Monthly returns:
-0.68%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -132.26% below industry average
Classification:
MGTX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.44
Statistical test of Returns:
MGTX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.21%
Weekly Volatility:
9.41%
Monthly Volatility:
18.82%
Yearly Volatility:
65.19%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -85.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.68%
Weekly VaR:
-19.40%
Monthly VaR:
-38.80%
How Much Can the price of
MGTX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.84
This translates to price declining to:
$1.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MGTX is a 173.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 134.62% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.48% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MGTX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.72
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.983
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.39
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.802
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.189
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.892
Beta is 92.50% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 49.03% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.230
Alpha is -262.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1467% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MGTX
Equity cost of capital:
0.149
Equity cost of capital is 35.04% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-1.11%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.87%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.87%
WACC is 49.61% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.48
-
EPS:
-$1.96
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -70.51% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.46
EBITDA per share
-$1.81
Valuation Analysis Today of
MGTX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.83
-
-
MGTX is -105.08% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
18.1
Price to sales ratio is -55.31% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.48
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-58.78%
Net income growth rate is -183.28% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-55.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-31.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
300.33
Interest coverage ratio is -353.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.372
Statistical significance of correlation:
MGTX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 9.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.011
Kurtosis
8.466
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.681
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MGTX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-361.82%
Operating profit margin is -15.60% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-53.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.93% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-30.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.18
Current ratio is -73.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-8.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
66.3K
Each employee generates -96% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 243.5K
Each employee generates -163% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 261.2K
Each employee generates -304% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 62.3K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
434.7K
Each employee generates -142% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 97.96%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2830.37% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MGTX
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
TARSUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:TARS)
KALVISTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:KALV)
RELMADA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RLMD)
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ESPR)
CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CARA)
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
GOSSAMER BIO, INC. (XNAS:GOSS)
IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IDYA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
22.08M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
73.52M
45.12M
45.12M
-
-
118.63M
139.00K
- 270.00K
6.17M
- 81088.00K
- 79893.00K
- 86989.00K
- 86989.00K
-
- 86989.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.12M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.58M
Change in Working Capital :
10.81M
Accounts Receivables:
9.17M
Other Working Capital:
- 5633.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.24M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 8298.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 12460.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
113.78M
-
113.78M
19.94M
-
9.20M
142.93M
134.06M
-
2.44M
6.66M
-
1.61M
144.77M
-
287.69M
18.50M
3.63M
-
20.19M
23.18M
65.50M
20.77M
2.67M
60.91M
-
126.41M
2.00K
- 371634.00K
- 739.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
89.47M
161.28M
287.69M
-
24.40M
- 89382.0K
-
-
- 12460.00K
-
-
-
-
- 2582.00K
- 2582.00K
- 582.00K
- 23922.00K
113.78M
137.70M
- 8298.00K
- 12460.00K
- 20758.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MGTX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.02
$2.08
$2.32
$2.59
$2.89