_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Medicinova, Inc. (XNAS:MNOV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MNOV
Name:
MEDICINOVA, INC. (XNAS:MNOV)
Sector:
- 3728.40K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Yuichi Iwaki
Total Employees:
11
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 151.63% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MEDICINOVA, INC.(MNOV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.1
One Month Price Target:
$2.11
Six Month Price Target :
$2.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1.83
This week:
$1.49
This month :
$.87
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
104.96M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
49.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
95.04%
-32.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.38
$2.80
$0.82
$1.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2.61
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.49
$1.59
$1.71
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MNOV
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.52%
Comparison:
MNOV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -126.66% lower than the industry
& is -122.74% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MNOV
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.12%
Monthly returns:
-0.48%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -122.96% below industry average
Classification:
MNOV, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.48
Statistical test of Returns:
MNOV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.36%
Weekly Volatility:
14.23%
Monthly Volatility:
28.45%
Yearly Volatility:
98.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.05%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.09%
Weekly VaR:
-29.27%
Monthly VaR:
-58.54%
How Much Can the price of
MNOV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-52%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.01
This translates to price declining to:
$0.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MNOV is a 313.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 253.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 33.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MNOV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.683
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.966
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.95
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.903
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.858
Beta is 12.54% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -16.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.156
Alpha is -209.64% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -990% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MNOV
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -11.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
22.78%
After-tax cost of debt:
17.99%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
17.99%
WACC is 7.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.00
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
-
EPS:
-$0.27
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -212.32% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
MNOV
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.11
-
-
MNOV is -108.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2746.59
Price to sales ratio is 6681.01% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-42.03%
Net income growth rate is -159.54% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
4.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-84.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
4.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-80.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -89.88% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-358.27
Interest coverage ratio is 202.74% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.284
Statistical significance of correlation:
MNOV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -16.60% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.082
Kurtosis
87.754
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
6.604
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MNOV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-35798.12%
Operating profit margin is 8250.74% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-16.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -71.06% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.84%
Return on assets (ROA) is -22.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
23.13
Current ratio is 185.69% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.4K
Each employee generates -100% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1216.1K
Each employee generates -416% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1212.1K
Each employee generates -1047% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 338.9K
Each employee generates -330% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.4M
Each employee generates -330% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 14.07%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -492.21% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MNOV
VTV THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:VTVT)
CHECKPOINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CKPT)
Genfit SA (XNAS:GNFT)
SANARA MEDTECH INC. (XNAS:SMTI)
Decibel Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:DBTX)
NEMAURA MEDICAL INC. (XNAS:NMRD)
ASLAN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED (XNAS:ASLN)
TRICIDA, INC. (XNAS:TCDA)
MARKER THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MRKR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
37.50K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
8.50M
4.96M
4.96M
-
-
13.46M
144.30K
37.34K
24.13K
- 13377.40K
- 13424.30K
- 13332.87K
- 13330.30K
-
- 13332.87K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
4.43K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
81.05K
Change in Working Capital :
- 472.64K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
45.18K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 3728.40K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
67.70M
-
67.70M
-
-
1.14M
68.83M
832.04K
9.60M
4.80M
-
-
111.76K
15.34M
-
84.18M
665.25K
163.95K
-
-
2.15M
2.98M
-
632.87K
834.66K
-
3.81M
49.04K
- 396447.51K
- 106.3K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
13.46M
80.36M
84.18M
-
163.95K
- 67531.3K
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 7.30K
- 3735.70K
67.70M
71.43M
- 3728.40K
-
- 3728.40K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MNOV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.25
$1.27
$1.35
$1.44
$1.53