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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (XNYS:MPW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MPW
Name:
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (XNYS:MPW)
Sector:
179.39M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Edward Aldag
Total Employees:
112
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -36.51% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC.(MPW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.32
One Month Price Target:
$14.39
Six Month Price Target :
$14.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.11
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.26
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.38
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.59
This week:
$12.68
This month :
$11.04
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.49B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
599.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.95%
-23.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.73
$16.19
$10.91
$12.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.36
$12.95
$13.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MPW
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.25%
Comparison:
MPW, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 664.72% higher than the industry
& is -154.92% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MPW
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.11%
Monthly returns:
-0.45%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1306.69% below industry average
Classification:
MPW, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
MPW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.48%
Weekly Volatility:
5.55%
Monthly Volatility:
11.11%
Yearly Volatility:
38.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.04% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.12%
Weekly VaR:
-11.46%
Monthly VaR:
-22.92%
How Much Can the price of
MPW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-79.38%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.38
This translates to price declining to:
$2.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MPW is a 61.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MPW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.641
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.906
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.406
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.818
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.986
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.97
Beta is -15.33% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is -20.32% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.141
Alpha is 44.51% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -899% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MPW
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -14.05% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.70%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.70%
WACC is -35.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.66
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.96
Annual revenue growth rate is 5163.93% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.88
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -0.92% lower than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.31
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.56%
Equity growth rate per share is -143.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.28
EBITDA per share
$2.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
MPW
P/E Ratio:
7.16
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.21
P/E ratio is -77.06% lower than main peers & is -95.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $307.26
MPW is -95.34% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.29
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.04
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.39
Price to sales ratio is -16.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.96
Price to free cash flow: 10.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -29.39% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-60.39%
Net income growth rate is 15.63% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 15.70%
Dividend yeild: 7.96%
Previous Dividend: $0.29
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.29
Previous Dividend: $1.14
Expected next dividend best case: $0.30
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.28
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.11%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/12/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 14/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.29
2021-12-08--$0.28
2021-06-16--$0.28
2022-03-16--$0.29
2021-09-15--$0.28
2021-03-17--$0.28
Dividend growth rate is -106.49% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
109.42%
Net debt to equity ratio:
112.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
49.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
50.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -8.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
17.94
Interest coverage ratio is 863.16% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
29.05%
Annual debt growth is 255% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 8.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.706
Statistical significance of correlation:
MPW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 22.14% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
16.378
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.236
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MPW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
389%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
67.07%
Operating profit margin is 287.27% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
389%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.40%
Effective tax rate is 68.17% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.61%
Return on equity (ROE) is 254.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.67%
Return on assets (ROA) is 223.31% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0.91
Current ratio is -73.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
13.3
Cash conversion cycle is -44.00% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 16.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.05%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
14.2M
Each employee generates 44% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.6M
Each employee generates 132% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
10.0M
Each employee generates 383% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates 70% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
167.6M
Each employee generates 70% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MPW
VNO-PL
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT (XNYS:AMH)
MAA-PI
VNO-PM
HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNAS:HST)
JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED (XNYS:JLL)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
W.P. CAREY INC. (XNYS:WPC)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�21%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.59B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
42.24M
1.55B
-
150.99M
150.99M
-
330.92M
481.91M
-
91.18M
343.94M
1.64B
1.07B
1.12B
1.20B
76.97M
1.12B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
88.76M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
11.80M
Change in Working Capital :
- 41766.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 7646.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 511358.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
179.39M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 724795.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 67605.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
248.85M
-
248.85M
793.32M
-
-
1.04B
-
-
-
2.99B
-
15.79B
18.78B
-
19.82B
-
531.42M
-
18.83M
595.03M
1.15B
9.75B
-
9.75B
-
10.90B
599.00K
369.97M
- 5010.0K
8.55B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
524.16M
8.91B
19.81B
-
10.28B
10.0B
-
1.67B
879.03M
- 869606.00K
-
- 27919.00K
- 176494.00K
- 189797.00K
- 1263816.00K
- 4721.00K
- 210116.00K
251.77M
461.88M
179.39M
-
179.39M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MPW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.19
$30.60
$32.29
$34.07
$35.95