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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mdu Resources Group, Inc. (XNYS:MDU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MDU
Name:
MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC. (XNYS:MDU)
Sector:
- 37878.00K
Industry:
Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. David Goodin
Total Employees:
12,826
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -112.73% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC.(MDU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
29.95
One Month Price Target:
$30.07
Six Month Price Target :
$30.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$31.43
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$28.43
This week:
$26.55
This month :
$23.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.05B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
203.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.34%
-20.15%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.01
$33.78
$22.89
$26.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$32.73
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.03
$27.17
$27.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MDU
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
MDU, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 168.20% higher than the industry
& is -51.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MDU
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.73%
Yearly returns:
4.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 87.31% above industry average
Classification:
MDU, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
MDU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.57%
Monthly Volatility:
11.15%
Yearly Volatility:
38.62%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.82%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.08%
Weekly VaR:
-11.37%
Monthly VaR:
-22.73%
How Much Can the price of
MDU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.74%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.05
This translates to price declining to:
$6.37
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MDU is a 60.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 12.57% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MDU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.59
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.834
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.445
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.673
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.845
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.547
Beta is -52.59% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.865
Beta is -15.15% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.24%
Sustainable growth rate is -38.60% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.005
Alpha is -112.30% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 35% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MDU
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -9.89% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.23%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.55%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.55%
WACC is -8.98% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.86
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.81
Annual revenue growth rate is 126.52% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.43%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -474.10% lower than the Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.27
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 7540.74% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$13.21
EBITDA per share
$3.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
MDU
P/E Ratio:
18.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.84
P/E ratio is -35.57% lower than main peers & is -83.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $199.66
MDU is -85.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.23
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.35
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.04
Price to sales ratio is -37.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.81
Price to free cash flow: 13.19
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
34.45%
Net income growth rate is -106.79% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.36%
Dividend yeild: 2.89%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.87
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.50%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.22
2021-12-08--$0.22
2021-06-09--$0.21
2022-03-09--$0.22
2021-09-08--$0.21
2021-03-10--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -102.16% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
79.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
86.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.36%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.65% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8
Interest coverage ratio is 223.01% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-82.35%
Annual debt growth is 1006% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.08%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.631
Statistical significance of correlation:
MDU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is 9.17% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
20.936
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.001
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MDU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
71%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.80%
Operating profit margin is 14.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
71%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.03%
Effective tax rate is 13.15% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -44.71% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.99%
Return on assets (ROA) is -32.03% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.35
Current ratio is -42.12% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39.5
Cash conversion cycle is -7.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.75%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
457.6K
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
59.8K
Each employee generates 3% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.9K
Each employee generates -14% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.0K
Each employee generates 115% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
576.9K
Each employee generates 115% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MDU
EAGLE MATERIALS INC. (XNYS:EXP)
KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION (XNYS:KGC)
UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION (XNYS:X)
ELEMENT SOLUTIONS INC (XNYS:ESI)
THE CHEMOURS COMPANY (XNYS:CC)
National Steel Company (XNYS:SID)
AXALTA COATING SYSTEMS LTD. (XNYS:AXTA)
Braskem SA (XNYS:BAK)
AVIENT CORPORATION (XNYS:AVNT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.83B
1.04B
-
-
-
-
521.98M
521.98M
-
95.83M
229.01M
766.53M
516.40M
357.73M
441.23M
83.96M
357.73M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 6466.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.69M
Change in Working Capital :
754.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
83.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
112.41M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 524.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
64.90M
-
64.90M
948.02M
380.32M
178.66M
1.57B
5.92B
763.26M
21.39M
174.56M
-
519.25M
7.40B
-
8.97B
449.75M
282.53M
90.57M
-
434.45M
1.17B
2.69B
1.17B
4.44B
-
5.61B
203.89M
1.75B
- 40735.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.35B
3.36B
8.97B
-
2.97B
2.9B
-
- 150144.00K
- 150668.00K
- 143622.00K
-
- 7526.00K
- 44229.00K
244.38M
49.00M
-
10.74M
64.90M
54.16M
112.41M
- 150288.00K
- 37878.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MDU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$31.59
$43.26
$45.39
$47.63
$49.97