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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Matthews International Corporation (XNAS:MATW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MATW
Name:
MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MATW)
Sector:
- 39796.00K
Industry:
Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. Joseph Bartolacci
Total Employees:
11,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -182.52% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MATTHEWS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION(MATW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
25.01
One Month Price Target:
$25.15
Six Month Price Target :
$25.87
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$24.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$25.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$23.56
This week:
$21.76
This month :
$18.51
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
759.63M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.61M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.04%
-20.47%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$31.76
$28.70
$18.26
$21.32
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$27.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.05
$22.30
$22.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MATW
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.99%
Comparison:
MATW, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -340.85% lower than the industry
& is -143.44% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MATW
Daily returns:
-0.02%
Weekly returns:
-0.10%
Monthly returns:
-0.38%
Yearly returns:
4.65%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -198.31% below industry average
Classification:
MATW, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.85
Statistical test of Returns:
MATW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.82%
Weekly Volatility:
6.30%
Monthly Volatility:
12.61%
Yearly Volatility:
43.68%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.30%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -18.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.81%
Weekly VaR:
-12.99%
Monthly VaR:
-25.98%
How Much Can the price of
MATW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-90.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.21
This translates to price declining to:
$2.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MATW is a 83.38% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 57.10% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 27.34% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MATW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.02
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.664
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.939
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.449
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.562
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.798
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.362
Beta is -25.28% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.865
Beta is 17.74% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.147
Alpha is 232.73% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -936% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MATW
Equity cost of capital:
0.101
Equity cost of capital is 11.58% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.46%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.28%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.28%
WACC is -4.59% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$57.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -33.55% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.70
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-26.56%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2795.73% higher than the Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.05
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 14.61%
Equity growth rate per share is -1216.26% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$29.04
EBITDA per share
$4.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
MATW
P/E Ratio:
376.47
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.65
P/E ratio is 927.17% higher than main peers & is 231.85% higher than the industry
-
MATW is -131.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $20.17
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $9.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.44
Price to sales ratio is -73.48% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.19
Price to free cash flow: 8.20
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-97.24%
Net income growth rate is -80.82% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -30.98%
Dividend yeild: 3.50%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.88
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.22
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.47%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 23/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-06--$0.22
2021-11-26--$0.22
2021-05-07--$0.22
2022-02-04--$0.22
2021-08-06--$0.22
2021-02-05--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -102.03% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
137.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
131.27%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.28%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.22%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -30.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.94
Interest coverage ratio is 99.31% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.39%
Annual debt growth is -119% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 10.34%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.489
Statistical significance of correlation:
MATW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -15.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
6.749
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.353
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MATW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.99%
Operating profit margin is -74.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
122%
Effective Tax Rate:
8.04%
Effective tax rate is -52.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.42%
Return on equity (ROE) is -117.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -118.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
2.01
Current ratio is -13.51% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.5
Cash conversion cycle is 8.41% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-16.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
159.2K
Each employee generates -61% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
11.9K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 2.0K
Each employee generates -106% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.6K
Each employee generates 163% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
124.2K
Each employee generates 163% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MATW
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:AMR)
ENERGY RECOVERY, INC. (XNAS:ERII)
WHFBZ
FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:FORR)
HURON CONSULTING GROUP INC. (XNAS:HURN)
APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:APOG)
HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HYFM)
IES Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:IESC)
TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA INC. (XNAS:TANNL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.75B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.22B
531.48M
-
285.90M
417.06M
131.17M
79.58M
496.65M
-
26.49M
128.21M
130.74M
34.83M
- 22029.00K
- 23976.00K
- 1928.00K
- 22029.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
33.50M
Differed Income Tax :
47.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.71M
Change in Working Capital :
- 77825.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 40816.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
33.22M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 27156.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 130.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
70.98M
-
70.98M
314.00M
192.74M
109.03M
686.75M
301.07M
771.98M
239.72M
30.42M
2.99M
20.39M
1.37B
-
2.05B
112.02M
28.81M
4.73M
-
200.31M
341.13M
888.65M
70.18M
1.07B
-
1.41B
36.33M
807.58M
- 159114.0K
-
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.72B
644.82M
2.05B
-
917.46M
846.5M
-
- 12339.00K
- 12469.00K
- 102514.00K
-
- 2435.00K
- 6824.00K
174.13M
62.36M
- 928.00K
21.81M
90.15M
68.34M
- 27156.00K
- 12640.00K
- 39796.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MATW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.80
$28.64
$30.60
$32.69
$34.93