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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mattel, Inc. (XNAS:MAT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MAT
Name:
MATTEL, INC. (XNAS:MAT)
Sector:
- 179827.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. Ynon Kreiz
Total Employees:
36,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -420.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MATTEL, INC.(MAT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.08
One Month Price Target:
$22.23
Six Month Price Target :
$22.99
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.9
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.88
This week:
$19.4
This month :
$16.72
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.82B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
353.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.72%
-12.71%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$27.64
$25.05
$16.52
$19.11
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.21
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.66
$19.94
$20.50
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MAT
Sharpe Ratio:
4.20%
Comparison:
MAT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 136.58% higher than the industry
& ratio is 84.27% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MAT
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.61%
Monthly returns:
2.45%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 77.50% above industry average
Classification:
MAT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.6
Statistical test of Returns:
MAT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.05%
Monthly Volatility:
12.10%
Yearly Volatility:
41.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.09% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.43%
Weekly VaR:
-12.15%
Monthly VaR:
-24.29%
How Much Can the price of
MAT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-84.15%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.65
This translates to price declining to:
$3.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MAT is a 71.46% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 46.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.09% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MAT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.22
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.761
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.076
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.328
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.785
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.724
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.604
Beta is -23.66% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is -13.77% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
155.37%
Sustainable growth rate is 265.89% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.178
Alpha is 385.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1136% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MAT
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is -10.40% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.32%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.20%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.20%
WACC is -3.63% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$15.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.72% below industry average
EPS:
$2.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.08
-
-
Debt per share
$7.41
EBITDA per share
$2.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
MAT
P/E Ratio:
7.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
965.17
P/E ratio is -99.26% lower than main peers & is -83.45% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $124.85
MAT is -82.31% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.39
Price to sales ratio is -53.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.82
Price to free cash flow: 20.41
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-267.43%
Net income growth rate is -260.04% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
161.83%
Net debt to equity ratio:
148.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
39.14%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -33.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.89
Interest coverage ratio is -92.14% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.04%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.595
Statistical significance of correlation:
MAT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 4.91% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.046
Kurtosis
3.718
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.041
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MAT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
191%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.79%
Operating profit margin is 216.34% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
191%
Effective Tax Rate:
-68.94%
Effective tax rate is -441.42% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
64.08%
Return on equity (ROE) is 160.07% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is 165.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1.71
Current ratio is -22.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.8
Cash conversion cycle is -66.61% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.86%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
155.0K
Each employee generates -79% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
25.4K
Each employee generates -83% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
28.6K
Each employee generates -61% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 5.0K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
96.7K
Each employee generates -83% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MAT
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:PENN)
CROCS, INC. (XNAS:CROX)
GLOBAL-E ONLINE LTD (XNAS:GLBE)
CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CHDN)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP. (XNAS:FOXF)
REYNOLDS CONSUMER PRODUCTS INC. (XNAS:REYN)
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY (XNAS:GT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.93B
2.70B
-
1.38B
1.92B
545.33M
-
1.92B
3.84M
156.46M
145.44M
921.89M
775.76M
1.04B
604.62M
- 416800.00K
1.04B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.21M
Differed Income Tax :
10.40M
Stock Based Compensation :
19.32M
Change in Working Capital :
- 248840.00K
Accounts Receivables:
209.04M
Other Working Capital:
1.61M
Other Non-Cash Items:
8.66M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 143796.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 36031.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 19298.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
536.63M
-
536.63M
862.24M
969.17M
267.67M
2.64B
791.66M
1.39B
463.75M
-
515.00M
354.11M
3.51B
-
6.15B
478.64M
324.20M
16.71M
-
741.87M
1.54B
2.62B
366.05M
2.98B
-
4.53B
441.37M
2.48B
- 926409.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.85B
1.62B
6.15B
-
2.94B
2.4B
-
346.00K
- 54983.00K
-
-
-
-
- 4213.00K
- 4213.00K
8.26M
- 194731.00K
536.63M
731.36M
- 143796.00K
- 36031.00K
- 179827.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MAT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.02
$781.69
$846.02
$915.63
$990.98