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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Match Group, Inc. (XNAS:MTCH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MTCH
Name:
MATCH GROUP, INC. (XNAS:MTCH)
Sector:
214.86M
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Ms. Sharmistha Dubey
Total Employees:
2,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -120.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MATCH GROUP, INC.(MTCH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.18
One Month Price Target:
$55.44
Six Month Price Target :
$56.77
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$54.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.51
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.37
This week:
$46.66
This month :
$38.14
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
282.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.78%
-17.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.86
$64.79
$37.50
$45.57
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.45
$48.17
$49.91
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MTCH
Sharpe Ratio:
0.47%
Comparison:
MTCH, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 1415.35% higher than the industry
& is -79.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MTCH
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.50%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 4334.82% above industry average
Classification:
MTCH, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.97
Statistical test of Returns:
MTCH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.54%
Monthly Volatility:
15.09%
Yearly Volatility:
52.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -66.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.90%
Weekly VaR:
-15.44%
Monthly VaR:
-30.87%
How Much Can the price of
MTCH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$40.27
This translates to price declining to:
$8.28
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MTCH is a 117.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MTCH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.859
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.214
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.027
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.122
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.629
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.112
Beta is -22.94% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is -38.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.031
Alpha is -75.70% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -195% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MTCH
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -29.13% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.41%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.69%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.69%
WACC is -60.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-128.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -132.26% below industry average
EPS:
-$8.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.27
-
-
Debt per share
$13.54
EBITDA per share
$1.74
Valuation Analysis Today of
MTCH
P/E Ratio:
161.74
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.99
P/E ratio is 477.82% higher than main peers & is 326.47% higher than the industry
-
MTCH is -116.53% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.01
Price to sales ratio is -1.79% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-128.23
Price to free cash flow: 16.85
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-71.22%
Net income growth rate is -9.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-3128.62%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2452.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
75.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
59.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 74.04% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.68
Interest coverage ratio is -69.58% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
10.73%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.548
Statistical significance of correlation:
MTCH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is 15.75% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.062
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.122
Kurtosis
2.894
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.324
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MTCH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.94%
Operating profit margin is 4850.19% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Effective Tax Rate:
-3.29%
Effective tax rate is -125.62% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-231.94%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2586.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.63%
Return on assets (ROA) is 262.47% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
4.2x
Current Ratio:
1.15
Current ratio is -67.91% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.6
Cash conversion cycle is -90.21% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
14.89%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.2M
Each employee generates 39% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
196.4K
Each employee generates 88% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
113.6K
Each employee generates 156% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
85.9K
Each employee generates -14% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.5M
Each employee generates -14% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 41.95%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -813.17% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MTCH
ELECTRONIC ARTS INC. (XNAS:EA)
VODAFONE GROUP PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNAS:VOD)
LIBERTY BROADBAND CORPORATION (XNAS:LBRDK)
SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:SIRI)
ROKU, INC. (XNAS:ROKU)
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL (XNAS:PARAA)
PARAMOUNT GLOBAL (XNAS:PARA)
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOXA)
FOX CORPORATION (XNAS:FOXA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�29%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
896.09M
2.22B
264.27M
427.86M
1.00B
573.36M
82.48M
1.35B
-
133.55M
82.48M
491.02M
870.24M
284.01M
273.79M
- 9017.00K
284.01M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
23.19M
Differed Income Tax :
- 14828.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
42.30M
Change in Working Capital :
260.00K
Accounts Receivables:
6.14M
Other Working Capital:
- 8090.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
993.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
232.52M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
912.43M
8.66M
921.10M
180.58M
-
132.14M
1.23B
167.68M
2.38B
746.11M
-
345.59M
168.67M
3.81B
-
5.04B
22.02M
84.59M
-
262.67M
704.75M
1.07B
3.83B
136.15M
4.09B
-
5.17B
286.00K
- 7963981.00K
- 269217.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.24B
- 122449.00K
5.04B
-
3.92B
3.0B
-
- 14660.00K
- 14660.00K
-
-
-
-
- 116613.00K
- 116613.00K
- 4197.00K
97.05M
912.56M
815.51M
232.52M
- 17657.00K
214.86M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MTCH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.54
$61.92
$65.48
$69.26
$73.25