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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mastercraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:MCFT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MCFT
Name:
MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:MCFT)
Sector:
- 17173.00K
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Frederick Brightbill
Total Employees:
1,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -33.45% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC.(MCFT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
23.22
One Month Price Target:
$23.45
Six Month Price Target :
$24.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$26.
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$23.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.32
This week:
$18.97
This month :
$14.71
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
424.76M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
18.04M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
31.78%
-31.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$32.04
$27.96
$14.40
$18.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$26.63
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.75
$19.80
$20.69
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MCFT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.33%
Comparison:
MCFT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 39.06% higher than the industry
& ratio is 46.15% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MCFT
Daily returns:
0.14%
Weekly returns:
0.72%
Monthly returns:
2.88%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 48.85% above industry average
Classification:
MCFT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
MCFT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.06%
Weekly Volatility:
9.08%
Monthly Volatility:
18.15%
Yearly Volatility:
62.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.19%
Weekly VaR:
-18.32%
Monthly VaR:
-36.63%
How Much Can the price of
MCFT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.08
This translates to price declining to:
$3.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MCFT is a 158.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 121.51% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MCFT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.142
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.615
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.164
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.093
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.145
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.369
Beta is 30.20% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is 7.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
54.48%
Sustainable growth rate is 80.91% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.192
Alpha is 119.59% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1223% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MCFT
Equity cost of capital:
0.154
Equity cost of capital is 6.11% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.03%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.17%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.71%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.71%
WACC is 14.86% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.79
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.57
Annual revenue growth rate is -3.90% below industry average
EPS:
$3.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
40.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 8.80% higher than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.89
-
-
Debt per share
$4.52
EBITDA per share
$5.41
Valuation Analysis Today of
MCFT
P/E Ratio:
6.9
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.71
P/E ratio is -58.70% lower than main peers & is -42.62% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $40.41
MCFT is -42.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.65
Price to sales ratio is -45.75% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.57
Price to free cash flow: 12.32
Price to free cash flow ratio is 12.43% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
40.26%
Net income growth rate is -95.13% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
69.48%
Net debt to equity ratio:
61.99%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.10%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -53.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
53.41
Interest coverage ratio is 114.47% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-14.23%
Annual debt growth is -164% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 20.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.549
Statistical significance of correlation:
MCFT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is -5.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
13.305
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.112
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MCFT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.18%
Operating profit margin is 52.51% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
89%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.38%
Effective tax rate is 13.19% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
53.88%
Return on equity (ROE) is 53.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
22.68%
Return on assets (ROA) is 102.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.5
Current ratio is -30.25% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6.5
Cash conversion cycle is -75.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
430.5K
Each employee generates -14% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
65.1K
Each employee generates -11% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
42.2K
Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 11.4K
Each employee generates 171% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
110.7K
Each employee generates 171% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MCFT
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC (XNAS:LOCO)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:DLTH)
FOSSIL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:FOSL)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
GOLDEN NUGGET ONLINE GAMING, INC.. (XNAS:GNOG)
DEL TACO RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:TACO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/3/22
Revenue:
645.74M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
501.15M
144.59M
-
39.66M
54.38M
14.72M
3.99M
58.37M
-
1.83M
13.24M
97.63M
85.13M
63.26M
82.56M
19.31M
63.26M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.35M
Differed Income Tax :
464.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
896.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 30087.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.43M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13555.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3618.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/3/21
2022
Q1
11.65M
-
11.65M
20.04M
75.54M
5.52M
112.75M
62.34M
28.49M
58.87M
-
15.38M
1.03M
166.11M
-
278.86M
28.64M
2.87M
-
4.30M
39.57M
75.38M
81.56M
4.53M
86.09M
-
161.47M
189.00K
- 945.00K
-
-
October 3, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
559.52M
117.39M
278.86M
-
84.43M
72.8M
-
-
- 3618.00K
- 20750.00K
-
- 1487.00K
-
11.81M
- 10428.00K
-
- 27601.00K
11.65M
39.25M
- 13555.00K
- 3618.00K
- 17173.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MCFT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$26.13
$49.39
$55.31
$61.94
$69.36