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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mastec, Inc. (XNYS:MTZ) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MTZ
Name:
MASTEC, INC. (XNYS:MTZ)
Sector:
48.33M
Industry:
Engineering & Construction
CEO:
Mr. Jose Mas
Total Employees:
27,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -12.54% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MASTEC, INC.(MTZ) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.9
One Month Price Target:
$79.45
Six Month Price Target :
$82.2
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.49
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.4
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$73.78
This week:
$67.46
This month :
$56.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.87B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.74%
-21.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.63
$91.68
$55.17
$66.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.78
$69.65
$72.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MTZ
Sharpe Ratio:
2.58%
Comparison:
MTZ, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -34.93% lower than the industry
& ratio is 13.40% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MTZ
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.83%
Yearly returns:
37.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.34% below industry average
Classification:
MTZ, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.56
Statistical test of Returns:
MTZ has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.20%
Weekly Volatility:
7.16%
Monthly Volatility:
14.32%
Yearly Volatility:
49.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.56% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.49%
Weekly VaR:
-14.50%
Monthly VaR:
-29.00%
How Much Can the price of
MTZ
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.49
This translates to price declining to:
$11.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MTZ is a 104.71% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 75.37% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -5.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MTZ
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.872
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.233
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.763
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.86
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.804
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.399
Beta is -11.14% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.325
Beta is -6.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.15%
Sustainable growth rate is 24.11% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.103
Alpha is -59.12% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 657% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MTZ
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is -4.60% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.59%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.05%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.05%
WACC is 1.33% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$107.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.37
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.01% below industry average
EPS:
$3.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -140.37% lower than the Engineering & Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.41
-
-
Debt per share
$26.08
EBITDA per share
$10.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
MTZ
P/E Ratio:
34.54
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.54
P/E ratio is 68.15% higher than main peers & is 19.10% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $89.61
MTZ is -11.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -88.11% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.37
Price to free cash flow: 9.39
Price to free cash flow ratio is -55.02% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
37.46%
Net income growth rate is -619.56% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
78.57%
Net debt to equity ratio:
78.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.80%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.71% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.78
Interest coverage ratio is -43.39% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
57.56%
Annual debt growth is -64% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 31.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.583
Statistical significance of correlation:
MTZ has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.523
Stock price is 11.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.523
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
6.581
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.518
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MTZ
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
54%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.48%
Operating profit margin is -125.32% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
54%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.85%
Effective tax rate is -4.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is -22.51% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -21.78% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -46.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16
Cash conversion cycle is -66.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
301.1K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.1K
Each employee generates -22% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
8.5K
Each employee generates -1395% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.8K
Each employee generates -128% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
159.4K
Each employee generates -128% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MTZ
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNYS:ALK)
ENOVIS CORPORATION (XNYS:ENOV)
ZIM INTEGRATED SHIPPING SERVICES LTD (XNYS:ZIM)
Pacific Airport Group, S.A.B. de CV (XNYS:PAC)
IAA, INC. (XNYS:IAA)
RITCHIE BROS. AUCTIONEERS INCORPORATED (XNYS:RBA)
DONALDSON COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:DCI)
ADT INC. (XNYS:ADT)
KBR, INC. (XNYS:KBR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�21%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
7.03B
1.11B
-
389.96M
389.96M
-
443.10M
833.06M
-
57.00M
443.10M
785.18M
283.22M
228.20M
286.54M
56.88M
228.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
110.78M
Differed Income Tax :
1.65M
Stock Based Compensation :
6.34M
Change in Working Capital :
57.13M
Accounts Receivables:
121.65M
Other Working Capital:
- 13802.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 9417.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
131.52M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 21840.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 960.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
233.13M
-
233.13M
2.23B
101.42M
222.93M
2.78B
1.75B
1.50B
693.00M
-
-
358.86M
4.30B
-
7.09B
704.31M
226.03M
-
298.35M
637.35M
1.87B
1.97B
276.76M
2.71B
-
4.58B
9.55M
2.13B
- 64109.0K
435.16M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.86B
2.51B
7.08B
-
2.20B
2.0B
-
- 78561.00K
- 101361.00K
- 896683.00K
-
- 13791.00K
-
752.46M
- 158016.00K
256.00K
- 127603.00K
233.13M
360.74M
131.52M
- 83191.00K
48.33M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MTZ
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$93.78
$101.61
$110.10
$119.29
$129.26