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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Marten Transport, Ltd. (XNAS:MRTN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MRTN
Name:
MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD. (XNAS:MRTN)
Sector:
28.02M
Industry:
Trucking
CEO:
Mr. Randolph Marten
Total Employees:
4,007
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -93.57% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MARTEN TRANSPORT, LTD.(MRTN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRUCKING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.4
One Month Price Target:
$19.5
Six Month Price Target :
$20.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$20.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$19.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.5
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$18.38
This week:
$17.13
This month :
$14.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.53B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
81.02M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.35%
-10.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.11
$21.94
$14.69
$16.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.23
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.76
$17.57
$18.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MRTN
Sharpe Ratio:
2.68%
Comparison:
MRTN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -16.49% lower than the industry
& ratio is 17.38% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MRTN
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.56%
Yearly returns:
31.49%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -40.48% below industry average
Classification:
MRTN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
MRTN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.59%
Weekly Volatility:
5.79%
Monthly Volatility:
11.57%
Yearly Volatility:
40.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.24%
Weekly VaR:
-11.71%
Monthly VaR:
-23.42%
How Much Can the price of
MRTN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.13%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.56
This translates to price declining to:
$3.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MRTN is a 65.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.52% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MRTN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.654
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.925
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.94
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.472
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.714
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.153
Beta is -18.43% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.38
Beta is -31.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -76.46% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.091
Alpha is -51.55% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 582% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MRTN
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -23.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.81
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.51% below industry average
EPS:
$1.14
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -71.67% lower than the Trucking industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.18
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 889.39%
Equity growth rate per share is 595.37% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$2.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
MRTN
P/E Ratio:
15.3
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.92
P/E ratio is -40.98% lower than main peers & is -7.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $18.85
MRTN is 2.91% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.51
Price to sales ratio is -91.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.42
Price to free cash flow: 8.92
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
53.19%
Net income growth rate is 832.78% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.24%
Dividend yeild: 3.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.70
Expected next dividend best case: $0.22
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.10
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 229.87%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-15--$0.06
2021-12-10--$0.04
2021-06-15--$0.04
2022-03-16--$0.06
2021-09-17--$0.50
2021-03-16--$0.04
Dividend growth rate is 393.45% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.20%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-74.83%
Annual debt growth is -195% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.407
Statistical significance of correlation:
MRTN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -9.88% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.041
Kurtosis
13.057
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.455
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MRTN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.90%
Operating profit margin is -101.06% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
76%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.17%
Effective tax rate is 2.57% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.64%
Return on equity (ROE) is -12.20% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.72%
Return on assets (ROA) is 57.59% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.01
Current ratio is -51.86% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.4
Cash conversion cycle is 5.01% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.39%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
259.0K
Each employee generates -2% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
56.6K
Each employee generates 12% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
23.7K
Each employee generates 1% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.0K
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
166.1K
Each employee generates 29% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MRTN
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (XNAS:CMCO)
PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION (XNAS:PRIM)
OMEGA FLEX, INC. (XNAS:OFLX)
Oxford Square Capital Corp. (XNAS:OXSQL)
HEARTLAND EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:HTLD)
ECHO ENERGY PLC (XLON:ECHO)
CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:ROAD)
KFORCE INC. (XNAS:KFRC)
TRIMAS CORPORATION (XNAS:TRS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.04B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
840.57M
197.31M
-
51.78M
51.78M
-
40.83M
92.61M
-
-
103.02M
226.61M
123.55M
94.96M
123.59M
28.63M
94.96M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.14M
Differed Income Tax :
1.76M
Stock Based Compensation :
369.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 12882.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2978.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
39.94M
Investments in PP&E:
- 11918.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
66.53M
-
66.53M
131.13M
-
22.38M
220.03M
663.82M
-
-
-
-
1.55M
665.36M
-
885.40M
29.16M
-
-
-
80.22M
109.38M
336.00K
-
127.25M
-
236.64M
819.00K
587.69M
-
60.26M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
933.18M
648.76M
885.40M
-
336.00K
- 66191.0K
-
12.33M
409.00K
-
-
- 25000.00K
- 4975.00K
- 842.00K
- 30817.00K
-
9.53M
66.53M
57.00M
39.94M
- 11918.00K
28.02M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MRTN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$25.93
$27.57
$29.31
$31.16
$33.13