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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (XNYS:VAC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
VAC
Name:
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
Sector:
120.00M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Weisz
Total Employees:
20,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2.53% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION(VAC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
138.86
One Month Price Target:
$140.5
Six Month Price Target :
$148.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$158.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$138.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$139.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$127.9
This week:
$114.35
This month :
$89.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.37B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.29M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.54%
-39.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$189.72
$166.30
$88.00
$111.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$158.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.68
$118.97
$124.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
VAC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.19%
Comparison:
VAC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -21.52% lower than the industry
& is -3.79% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
VAC
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.47%
Monthly returns:
1.88%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -32.81% below industry average
Classification:
VAC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
VAC has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.89%
Weekly Volatility:
8.70%
Monthly Volatility:
17.40%
Yearly Volatility:
60.26%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.89%
Weekly VaR:
-17.65%
Monthly VaR:
-35.31%
How Much Can the price of
VAC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$97.00
This translates to price declining to:
$20.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
VAC is a 149.19% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 113.48% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.71% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
VAC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.11
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.117
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.58
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.061
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.178
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.172
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.542
Beta is 36.92% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is 1.65% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.050
Alpha is -69.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 317% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
VAC
Equity cost of capital:
0.176
Equity cost of capital is 1.35% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.31%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.62%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.62%
WACC is 17.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$99.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.93
Annual revenue growth rate is -66.75% below industry average
EPS:
$2.90
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-28.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -274.67% lower than the Resorts & Casinos industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.13
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -63.43%
Equity growth rate per share is 23.74% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$112.76
EBITDA per share
$11.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
VAC
P/E Ratio:
24.4
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10.39
P/E ratio is 134.97% higher than main peers & is -41.75% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $121.50
VAC is 14.29% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $21.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.4
Price to sales ratio is -43.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.93
Price to free cash flow: 22.67
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-27.75%
Net income growth rate is -57.85% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 50.52%
Dividend yeild: 1.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.62
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.62
Previous Dividend: $2.32
Expected next dividend best case: $0.68
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.56
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.96%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/09/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-25--$0.62
2021-12-22--$0.54
2020-02-26--$0.54
2022-03-02--$0.62
2021-09-22--$0.54
2019-12-20--$0.54
Dividend growth rate is -106.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
157.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
148.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
46.62%
Net debt to assets ratio:
43.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -36.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3
Interest coverage ratio is -43.14% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-48.68%
Annual debt growth is -102% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.53%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.632
Statistical significance of correlation:
VAC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 10.95% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.012
Kurtosis
21.129
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.245
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
VAC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.54%
Operating profit margin is 57.46% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
148%
Effective Tax Rate:
37.11%
Effective tax rate is -10.19% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.45%
Return on equity (ROE) is -83.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.02%
Return on assets (ROA) is -73.49% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
3.09
Current ratio is 39.55% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
10.3
Cash conversion cycle is -75.09% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
8.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
191.6K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
22.2K
Each employee generates -69% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
4.8K
Each employee generates -78% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.9K
Each employee generates -41% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
290.4K
Each employee generates -41% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
VAC
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. (XNYS:HOG)
MINISO GROUP HOLDING LIMITED (XNYS:MNSO)
PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:PAG)
TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:TPX)
HANESBRANDS INC. (XNYS:HBI)
YETI HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YETI)
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. (XNYS:GIL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.43B
1.46B
-
234.00M
867.00M
633.00M
144.00M
1.01B
-
150.00M
144.00M
450.00M
449.00M
97.00M
159.00M
59.00M
97.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
33.00M
Differed Income Tax :
18.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.00M
Change in Working Capital :
8.00M
Accounts Receivables:
45.00M
Other Working Capital:
47.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
129.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
3.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
354.00M
-
354.00M
2.26B
693.00M
296.00M
3.61B
1.16B
3.14B
978.00M
-
-
614.00M
5.90B
-
9.50B
212.00M
100.00M
-
507.00M
347.00M
1.17B
4.43B
243.00M
5.51B
-
6.68B
1.00M
338.00M
4.0M
2.47B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.44B
2.81B
9.49B
-
4.53B
4.2B
-
- 13000.00K
- 10000.00K
- 210000.00K
-
- 119000.00K
- 49000.00K
106.00M
- 272000.00K
-
- 153000.00K
650.00M
803.00M
129.00M
- 9000.00K
120.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
VAC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$117.06
$133.68
$152.65
$174.32
$199.06