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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Marriott International, Inc. (XNAS:MAR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MAR
Name:
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MAR)
Sector:
349.00M
Industry:
Lodging
CEO:
Mr. Arne Sorenson
Total Employees:
120,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -0.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC.(MAR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LODGING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
154.23
One Month Price Target:
$155.62
Six Month Price Target :
$162.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$170.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$153.52
Price Upper limit ($) :
$155.12
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$144.62
This week:
$132.75
This month :
$111.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
49.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
324.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.48%
-15.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$198.80
$178.34
$109.66
$130.12
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$171.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$167.31
$136.72
$141.15
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MAR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.60%
Comparison:
MAR, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -7.89% lower than the industry
& is -30.01% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MAR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.15%
Yearly returns:
13.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.10% below industry average
Classification:
MAR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.74
Statistical test of Returns:
MAR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.06%
Weekly Volatility:
6.84%
Monthly Volatility:
13.69%
Yearly Volatility:
47.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.23%
Weekly VaR:
-13.93%
Monthly VaR:
-27.85%
How Much Can the price of
MAR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$117.26
This translates to price declining to:
$23.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MAR is a 96.57% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 68.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.91% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MAR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.916
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.295
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.274
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.825
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.651
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.289
Beta is 25.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.404
Beta is 14.73% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
78.55%
Sustainable growth rate is -29.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -128.30% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -22% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MAR
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 11.09% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.04%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.04%
WACC is 16.17% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$48.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
28.25
Annual revenue growth rate is 71.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.51
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2200.75% higher than the Lodging industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.01
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 24.80% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$30.21
EBITDA per share
$7.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
MAR
P/E Ratio:
29.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
48.11
P/E ratio is -39.36% lower than main peers & is -46.69% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $246.78
MAR is -37.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $7.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.11
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.18
Price to sales ratio is -43.92% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
28.25
Price to free cash flow: 38.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -60.44% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-41.40%
Net income growth rate is 75.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.82%
Previous Dividend: $0.30
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.30
Previous Dividend: $1.26
Expected next dividend best case: $0.72
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.42
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -18.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-13--$0.30
2019-11-20--$0.48
--$0.00
2020-02-27--$0.48
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -61.92% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
553.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
535.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
38.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
37.61%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -42.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.88
Interest coverage ratio is -432.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.93%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.582
Statistical significance of correlation:
MAR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.611
Stock price is -4.73% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.611
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.048
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.086
Kurtosis
6.407
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.537
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MAR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
84%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.13%
Operating profit margin is 185.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
84%
Effective Tax Rate:
11.65%
Effective tax rate is -87.47% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
83.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.89%
Return on assets (ROA) is 98.83% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.53
Current ratio is -66.83% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
57.9
Cash conversion cycle is 42.26% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
131.2K
Each employee generates -47% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
19.9K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
12.4K
Each employee generates -78% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.9K
Each employee generates -69% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
181.8K
Each employee generates -69% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MAR
Mercado Libre, Inc. (XNAS:MELI)
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (XNAS:ORLY)
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. (XNAS:LULU)
PINDUODUO INC. (XNAS:PDD)
ROSS STORES, INC. (XNAS:ROST)
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC. (XNAS:RIVN)
EXPEDIA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:EXPE)
TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY (XNAS:TSCO)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�33%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
15.74B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
12.46B
3.28B
-
820.00M
820.00M
-
216.00M
1.04B
26.00M
406.00M
298.00M
2.39B
2.22B
1.49B
1.68B
196.00M
1.49B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
72.00M
Differed Income Tax :
61.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
44.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 230000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
74.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
398.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.04B
-
1.04B
2.11B
-
264.00M
3.42B
2.56B
9.07B
8.89B
361.00M
228.00M
716.00M
21.82B
-
25.24B
737.00M
731.00M
-
-
4.95B
6.42B
9.80B
5.94B
17.04B
-
23.47B
5.00M
10.68B
- 328000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
13.50B
1.77B
25.24B
-
10.54B
9.5B
-
- 23000.00K
- 23000.00K
- 401000.00K
-
-
-
- 328000.00K
- 729000.00K
-
- 354000.00K
1.07B
1.42B
398.00M
- 49000.00K
349.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MAR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$190.08
$210.66
$233.47
$258.75
$286.76