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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mantech International Corporation (XNAS:MANT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MANT
Name:
MANTECH INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:MANT)
Sector:
18.27M
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Kevin Phillips
Total Employees:
9,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MANTECH INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION(MANT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
95.91
One Month Price Target:
$96.26
Six Month Price Target :
$98.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$100.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$95.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$96.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$91.13
This week:
$85.23
This month :
$74.55
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.97M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.94%
-14.84%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$118.07
$107.87
$73.75
$83.95
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$104.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$102.37
$87.25
$89.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MANT
Sharpe Ratio:
2.11%
Comparison:
MANT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 118.39% higher than the industry
& is -7.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MANT
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.30%
Monthly returns:
1.21%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 46.17% above industry average
Classification:
MANT, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
MANT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.45%
Weekly Volatility:
5.49%
Monthly Volatility:
10.98%
Yearly Volatility:
38.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.04%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -98.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.98%
Weekly VaR:
-11.14%
Monthly VaR:
-22.28%
How Much Can the price of
MANT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-77.16%
This translates to price declining to:
$77.68
This translates to price declining to:
$21.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MANT is a 57.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 34.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -31.71% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MANT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.553
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.782
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.567
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.613
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.842
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.617
Beta is -59.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -50.76% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.78%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.069
Alpha is -391.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 437% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MANT
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -37.76% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.07%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.84%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.84%
WACC is -26.90% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$63.37
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.32
Annual revenue growth rate is -77.99% below industry average
EPS:
$3.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.54%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -79.76% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.94
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 51.46%
Equity growth rate per share is 3266.16% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$9.01
EBITDA per share
$6.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
MANT
P/E Ratio:
32.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
139.15
P/E ratio is -76.80% lower than main peers & is -81.82% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $589.62
MANT is -83.73% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $121.18
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.68
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.51
Price to sales ratio is -86.81% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.32
Price to free cash flow: 19.41
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.24% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
62.02%
Net income growth rate is -74.60% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.31%
Dividend yeild: 1.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.41
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.41
Previous Dividend: $1.58
Expected next dividend best case: $0.45
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.52%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/10/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-09--$0.41
2021-12-02--$0.38
2021-06-10--$0.38
2022-03-10--$0.41
2021-09-09--$0.38
2021-03-11--$0.38
Dividend growth rate is -145.90% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
21.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
20.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.02%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.45% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
62.77
Interest coverage ratio is 18.17% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
216.03%
Annual debt growth is -77% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.54%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.533
Statistical significance of correlation:
MANT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is 5.89% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.004
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
11.048
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.205
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MANT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
60%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.25%
Operating profit margin is -137.84% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
60%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.24%
Effective tax rate is -0.50% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.03%
Return on equity (ROE) is -161.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -234.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.66
Current ratio is -44.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39.6
Cash conversion cycle is -58.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
264.9K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
27.4K
Each employee generates 155% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.9K
Each employee generates -180% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.9K
Each employee generates -124% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
208.2K
Each employee generates -124% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MANT
VIASAT, INC. (XNAS:VSAT)
STAMPER OIL & GAS CORP. (XTSX:STMP)
Cerence Inc. (XNAS:CRNC)
AMBARELLA INC (XNAS:AMBA)
JFROG LTD (XNAS:FROG)
PS
DIODES INCORPORATED (XNAS:DIOD)
EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:EXLS)
BLACKBAUD, INC. (XNAS:BLKB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.60B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.21B
388.48M
-
200.25M
200.25M
-
-
200.25M
141.00K
4.28M
79.87M
268.49M
188.23M
136.03M
184.05M
48.30M
136.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.95M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2136.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 27530.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.22M
Other Working Capital:
- 12863.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.48M
Investments in PP&E:
- 16204.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
60.29M
-
60.29M
480.76M
-
52.77M
593.82M
216.08M
1.51B
252.34M
11.56M
-
51.11M
2.04B
-
2.63B
158.97M
32.12M
-
30.32M
135.79M
357.20M
369.30M
42.84M
582.66M
-
939.86M
412.00K
1.13B
- 285.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.41B
1.69B
2.63B
-
401.42M
341.1M
-
5.00M
- 11204.00K
- 2000.00K
-
-
- 16741.00K
2.38M
- 16360.00K
-
6.91M
60.29M
53.37M
34.48M
- 16204.00K
18.27M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MANT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$100.65
$222.17
$231.98
$242.23
$252.94