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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Manpowergroup Inc. (XNYS:MAN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MAN
Name:
MANPOWERGROUP INC. (XNYS:MAN)
Sector:
51.20M
Industry:
Staffing & Employment Services
CEO:
Mr. Jonas Prising
Total Employees:
30,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 653.69% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MANPOWERGROUP INC.(MAN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND STAFFING & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
72.4
One Month Price Target:
$73.08
Six Month Price Target :
$76.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$80.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$72.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$72.72
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.47
This week:
$63.61
This month :
$54.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.74B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.4%
-12.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.65
$82.36
$54.15
$62.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$79.67
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.90
$65.11
$66.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MAN
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.57%
Comparison:
MAN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -133.73% lower than the industry
& is -125.03% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MAN
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.12%
Yearly returns:
14.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -110.65% below industry average
Classification:
MAN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
MAN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.64%
Weekly Volatility:
5.90%
Monthly Volatility:
11.80%
Yearly Volatility:
40.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -72.86% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.43%
Weekly VaR:
-12.14%
Monthly VaR:
-24.27%
How Much Can the price of
MAN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-84.08%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.80
This translates to price declining to:
$11.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MAN is a 71.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 46.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.94% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MAN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.089
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.54
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.387
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.735
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.72
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.348
Beta is 24.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.192
Beta is 41.24% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.162
Alpha is -704.15% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1030% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MAN
Equity cost of capital:
0.147
Equity cost of capital is 29.76% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.33%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.33%
WACC is 31.82% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$404.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.47
Annual revenue growth rate is -54.89% below industry average
EPS:
$7.47
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-3.92%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -149.49% lower than the Staffing & Employment Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.21
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.52%
Equity growth rate per share is 682.32% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$15.61
EBITDA per share
$14.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
MAN
P/E Ratio:
9.34
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.98
P/E ratio is -71.67% lower than main peers & is -48.88% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $136.56
MAN is -46.98% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $67.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.18
Price to sales ratio is -93.23% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.47
Price to free cash flow: 7.86
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-23.49%
Net income growth rate is -720.66% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 6.98%
Previous Dividend: $1.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.36
Previous Dividend: $5.05
Expected next dividend best case: $1.51
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.21
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.59%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$1.36
2021-05-28--$1.26
2020-05-29--$1.09
2021-11-30--$1.26
2020-11-30--$1.17
2019-11-29--$1.09
Dividend growth rate is -131.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
21.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.31%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
18.64
Interest coverage ratio is -36.14% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
24.04%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.633
Statistical significance of correlation:
MAN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.529
Stock price is 19.80% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.529
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.036
Kurtosis
5.581
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.252
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MAN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
2.99%
Operating profit margin is -57.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
68%
Effective Tax Rate:
32.58%
Effective tax rate is 27.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.19%
Return on equity (ROE) is -31.92% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -40.39% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.12
Current ratio is -33.65% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
31.9
Cash conversion cycle is 116.15% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.57%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
698.1K
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
24.2K
Each employee generates -38% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.7K
Each employee generates -32% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.7K
Each employee generates -114% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
111.7K
Each employee generates -114% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MAN
CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (XNYS:CW)
AIR LEASE CORPORATION (XNYS:AL)
THE TIMKEN COMPANY (XNYS:TKR)
CLEAN HARBORS, INC. (XNYS:CLH)
SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO., INC. (XNYS:SSD)
HAYWARD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:HAYW)
MSA Safety Incorporated (XNYS:MSA)
EVOQUA WATER TECHNOLOGIES CORP. (XNYS:AQUA)
VALMONT INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:VMI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
20.94B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
17.41B
3.54B
-
-
2.91B
-
-
2.91B
11.70M
39.00M
76.80M
726.90M
625.70M
412.00M
611.10M
199.10M
412.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
21.30M
Differed Income Tax :
2.40M
Stock Based Compensation :
10.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 66100.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 96900.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
70.60M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
777.30M
-
777.30M
5.44B
-
152.20M
6.37B
464.90M
1.71B
573.00M
-
-
603.70M
3.35B
-
9.72B
3.15B
512.60M
1.21B
-
2.03B
5.70B
807.60M
660.20M
1.47B
-
7.17B
1.20M
3.73B
- 399600.0K
- 782300.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
20.32B
2.55B
9.71B
-
1.32B
542.9M
-
- 18600.00K
- 18600.00K
- 25000.00K
-
- 59900.00K
-
- 10900.00K
- 95800.00K
- 26700.00K
- 70500.00K
777.30M
847.80M
70.60M
- 19400.00K
51.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MAN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$80.99
$140.62
$156.53
$174.25
$193.97