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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Mannkind Corporation (XNAS:MNKD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MNKD
Name:
MANNKIND CORPORATION (XNAS:MNKD)
Sector:
- 23304.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Michael Castagna
Total Employees:
348
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 13.43% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MANNKIND CORPORATION(MNKD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.78
One Month Price Target:
$3.82
Six Month Price Target :
$4.
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.22
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.4
This week:
$2.93
This month :
$2.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
921.27M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
257.34M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.33%
-29.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.55
$4.72
$2.01
$2.84
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.27
$3.11
$3.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MNKD
Sharpe Ratio:
5.29%
Comparison:
MNKD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 172.08% higher than the industry
& ratio is 132.11% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MNKD
Daily returns:
0.28%
Weekly returns:
1.38%
Monthly returns:
5.52%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 162.37% above industry average
Classification:
MNKD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
MNKD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.04%
Weekly Volatility:
11.28%
Monthly Volatility:
22.56%
Yearly Volatility:
78.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.96%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 18.17% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.09%
Weekly VaR:
-22.55%
Monthly VaR:
-45.10%
How Much Can the price of
MNKD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$2.39
This translates to price declining to:
$0.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MNKD is a 218.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 172.71% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 6.11% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MNKD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.903
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.278
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.034
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.904
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.276
Beta is 35.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 50.53% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
43.90%
Sustainable growth rate is -16.28% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.512
Alpha is 260.64% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3256% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MNKD
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 36.11% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.95%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.12%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.12%
WACC is -98.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-4.19
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.12% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.38
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.61% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$1.46
EBITDA per share
-$0.28
Valuation Analysis Today of
MNKD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
189.91
-
-
MNKD is -111.09% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.9
Price to sales ratio is -65.69% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-4.19
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-46.19%
Net income growth rate is -165.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-162.23%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-137.31%
Debt to assets ratio:
122.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
103.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 189.64% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-4.77
Interest coverage ratio is -95.97% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
203.16%
Annual debt growth is 50% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.344
Statistical significance of correlation:
MNKD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 1.07% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.019
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.054
Kurtosis
6.117
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.543
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MNKD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-88.70%
Operating profit margin is -79.31% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
130%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
40.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -170.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-30.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is 49.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
-4.5x
Current Ratio:
3.44
Current ratio is -57.45% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-88.4
Cash conversion cycle is -116.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
201.1K
Each employee generates -88% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 208.7K
Each employee generates -154% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 270.1K
Each employee generates -311% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 67.0K
Each employee generates -145% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
356.5K
Each employee generates -145% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 97.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2805.25% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MNKD
LEMAITRE VASCULAR, INC. (XNAS:LMAT)
ATAI Life Sciences NV (XNAS:ATAI)
SYNDAX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SNDX)
NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION (XNAS:NRC)
ORTHOPEDIATRICS CORP. (XNAS:KIDS)
REATA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:RETA)
Design Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:DSGN)
Procaps Group SA (XNAS:PROC)
Sema4 Holdings Corp. (XNAS:SMFR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
70.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
42.25M
27.75M
13.41M
-
80.70M
-
339.00K
94.45M
486.00K
15.24M
6.12M
- 72642.00K
- 62087.00K
- 94008.00K
- 94008.00K
-
- 94008.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.61M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.81M
Change in Working Capital :
2.83M
Accounts Receivables:
- 4829.00K
Other Working Capital:
9.16M
Other Non-Cash Items:
504.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 18248.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5056.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 60988.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
67.24M
95.20M
162.45M
9.82M
8.04M
3.95M
184.27M
41.45M
-
-
70.54M
-
12.06M
124.05M
-
308.32M
8.70M
9.41M
-
1.31M
34.08M
53.49M
376.48M
77.24M
486.89M
-
540.38M
2.52M
- 3156067.00K
- 1076.0K
2.92B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
136.69M
- 232064.00K
308.32M
165.75M
385.89M
318.6M
26.54M
-
- 39506.00K
-
684.00K
-
-
129.00K
813.00K
-
- 56941.00K
67.24M
124.18M
- 18248.00K
- 5056.00K
- 23304.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MNKD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.23
$4.73
$5.28
$5.89
$6.58