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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Malibu Boats, Inc. (XNAS:MBUU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MBUU
Name:
MALIBU BOATS, INC. (XNAS:MBUU)
Sector:
9.79M
Industry:
Recreational Vehicles
CEO:
Mr. Jack Springer
Total Employees:
3,015
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 80.80% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MALIBU BOATS, INC.(MBUU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.42
One Month Price Target:
$58.93
Six Month Price Target :
$61.5
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$64.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.31
This week:
$49.24
This month :
$40.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.20B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
20.50M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.%
-21.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$77.46
$68.64
$39.38
$48.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$65.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$63.89
$51.04
$52.95
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MBUU
Sharpe Ratio:
3.29%
Comparison:
MBUU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 37.40% higher than the industry
& ratio is 44.41% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MBUU
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.62%
Monthly returns:
2.47%
Yearly returns:
23.23%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 27.57% above industry average
Classification:
MBUU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
MBUU has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.48%
Weekly Volatility:
7.79%
Monthly Volatility:
15.57%
Yearly Volatility:
53.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.23%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.72% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.03%
Weekly VaR:
-15.71%
Monthly VaR:
-31.43%
How Much Can the price of
MBUU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$43.01
This translates to price declining to:
$8.76
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MBUU is a 121.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 90.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.85% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MBUU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.57
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.955
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.351
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.44
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.967
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.758
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.688
Beta is -6.93% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.654
Beta is -5.01% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
32.41%
Sustainable growth rate is 7.64% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.157
Alpha is 79.68% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1001% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MBUU
Equity cost of capital:
0.139
Equity cost of capital is -3.92% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.72%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.72%
WACC is 21.59% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$55.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.93
Annual revenue growth rate is 38.30% above the industry average
EPS:
$6.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
22.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -38.53% lower than the Recreational Vehicles industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.66
-
-
Debt per share
$2.29
EBITDA per share
$10.25
Valuation Analysis Today of
MBUU
P/E Ratio:
7.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.86
P/E ratio is -47.81% lower than main peers & is -35.52% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $81.78
MBUU is -28.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.05
Price to sales ratio is -12.02% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.93
Price to free cash flow: 15.98
Price to free cash flow ratio is 115.98% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
286.80%
Net income growth rate is -65.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.48%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
23.89%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -90.07% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
77.19
Interest coverage ratio is 210.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
71.26%
Annual debt growth is 219% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 30.24%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.535
Statistical significance of correlation:
MBUU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.579
Stock price is -7.60% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.579
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.054
Kurtosis
3.811
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.21
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MBUU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.99%
Operating profit margin is 96.59% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
101%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.44%
Effective tax rate is 8.64% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
36.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 2.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
19.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 70.71% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.04
Current ratio is -51.68% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.7
Cash conversion cycle is -82.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.02%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
377.6K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
69.7K
Each employee generates -5% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
47.9K
Each employee generates 3% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.2K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
177.6K
Each employee generates -177% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
MBUU
BED BATH & BEYOND INC. (XNAS:BBBY)
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (XNAS:GDEN)
ROVER GROUP, INC. (XNAS:ROVR)
Vroom, Inc. (XNAS:VRM)
G-III APPAREL GROUP, LTD. (XNAS:GIII)
GREEN BRICK PARTNERS, INC. (XNYS:GRBK)
Playa Hotels & Resorts NV (XNAS:PLYA)
FAT BRANDS INC. (XNAS:FATBP)
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
848.74M
289.65M
-
66.03M
88.84M
22.81M
5.65M
94.49M
-
2.72M
19.84M
210.12M
193.44M
144.53M
191.74M
43.03M
144.53M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.77M
Differed Income Tax :
660.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.48M
Change in Working Capital :
- 13659.00K
Accounts Receivables:
8.61M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.49M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
23.69M
Investments in PP&E:
- 13892.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
29.50M
-
29.50M
41.22M
138.74M
9.11M
218.57M
141.56M
100.77M
233.46M
-
47.34M
12.23M
535.35M
-
753.92M
51.22M
78.28M
8.33M
5.69M
75.74M
210.92M
46.86M
59.84M
134.55M
-
345.46M
207.00K
290.50M
- 2474.0K
112.09M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
943.23M
400.32M
745.79M
-
125.14M
95.6M
-
-
- 13892.00K
- 20313.00K
-
-
- 687.00K
- 516.00K
- 21516.00K
- 257.00K
- 11979.00K
29.50M
41.48M
23.69M
- 13892.00K
9.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MBUU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$64.91
$96.85
$107.07
$118.38
$130.88