_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Magnite, Inc. (XNAS:MGNI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MGNI
Name:
MAGNITE, INC. (XNAS:MGNI)
Sector:
11.07M
Industry:
Advertising Agencies
CEO:
Mr. Michael G. Barrett
Total Employees:
876
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 585.91% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MAGNITE, INC.(MGNI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ADVERTISING AGENCIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.24
One Month Price Target:
$7.32
Six Month Price Target :
$7.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.18
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.39
This week:
$5.35
This month :
$3.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
966.45M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
132.94M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.35%
-20.31%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.16
$9.35
$3.32
$5.13
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.77
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.38
$5.71
$6.10
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MGNI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.52%
Comparison:
MGNI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 33.19% higher than the industry
& ratio is 10.50% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MGNI
Daily returns:
0.15%
Weekly returns:
0.77%
Monthly returns:
3.08%
Yearly returns:
23.80%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 55.22% above industry average
Classification:
MGNI, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
MGNI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.76%
Weekly Volatility:
12.88%
Monthly Volatility:
25.76%
Yearly Volatility:
89.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -93.07% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.68%
Weekly VaR:
-26.11%
Monthly VaR:
-52.22%
How Much Can the price of
MGNI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-44%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.02
This translates to price declining to:
$1.09
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MGNI is a 268.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 215.75% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 48.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MGNI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.03
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.099
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.555
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.655
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.765
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.208
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.28
Beta is 58.94% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.076
Beta is 89.20% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.88%
Sustainable growth rate is -107.37% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.199
Alpha is 49.46% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1264% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MGNI
Equity cost of capital:
0.171
Equity cost of capital is 62.48% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.90%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.02%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.01%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.01%
WACC is 38.79% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.96
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.15
Annual revenue growth rate is -831.48% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.26
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.84
-
-
Debt per share
$5.89
EBITDA per share
$0.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
MGNI
P/E Ratio:
1029.91
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.29
P/E ratio is 3089.09% higher than main peers & is 894.95% higher than the industry
-
MGNI is -126.90% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.83
Price to sales ratio is -47.93% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.15
Price to free cash flow: 8.61
Price to free cash flow ratio is 4.06% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-100.04%
Net income growth rate is 182.55% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
93.50%
Net debt to equity ratio:
71.74%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -47.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
362.92
Interest coverage ratio is 40403.24% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1822.62%
Annual debt growth is 380% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.14%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.495
Statistical significance of correlation:
MGNI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.498
Stock price is -0.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.498
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.1
Kurtosis
1.466
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.356
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MGNI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-20.37%
Operating profit margin is -221.26% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Effective Tax Rate:
75.44%
Effective tax rate is 60.17% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-3.78%
Return on equity (ROE) is -55.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is -99.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.14
Current ratio is -56.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
723
Cash conversion cycle is 401.01% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-52.41%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
600.2K
Each employee generates 69% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
58.8K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 36.1K
Each employee generates -204% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.6K
Each employee generates -227% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -227% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 44.43%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 293.52% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MGNI
Millicom International Cellular SA (XNAS:TIGO)
ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:ADV)
IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC. (XNAS:IRDM)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
CARDLYTICS, INC. (XNAS:CDLX)
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
IHEARTMEDIA, INC. (XNAS:IHRT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
525.77M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
240.30M
285.47M
83.23M
69.34M
267.15M
197.82M
-
350.38M
-
142.00K
180.27M
51.53M
- 107118.00K
- 31651.00K
- 128875.00K
- 97224.00K
- 31651.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
45.87M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1891.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.59M
Change in Working Capital :
146.00K
Accounts Receivables:
146.24M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.52M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.63M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7184.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 20755.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
204.59M
-
204.59M
782.96M
-
22.22M
1.01B
107.35M
978.22M
420.26M
-
-
6.88M
1.51B
-
2.52B
838.71M
22.24M
-
-
26.38M
887.32M
783.49M
2.24M
797.23M
-
1.68B
2.00K
- 439044.00K
- 1266.0K
1.28B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
590.68M
837.91M
2.52B
-
805.73M
601.1M
-
- 3382.00K
- 31321.00K
- 1097.00K
-
- 12138.00K
-
- 3153.00K
- 16388.00K
268.00K
- 25809.00K
204.88M
230.69M
21.63M
- 10566.00K
11.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MGNI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.26
$9.38
$10.67
$12.13
$13.79