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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Macrogenics, Inc. (XNAS:MGNX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
MGNX
Name:
MACROGENICS, INC. (XNAS:MGNX)
Sector:
- 59111.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Scott Koenig
Total Employees:
427
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 4.99% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF MACROGENICS, INC.(MGNX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
4.24
One Month Price Target:
$4.29
Six Month Price Target :
$4.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$4.79
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$4.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$4.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$3.36
This week:
$2.27
This month :
$.31
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
249.52M
Market Cap Classification:
Micro Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
61.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
230.92%
-28.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.32
$6.45
$0.16
$2.03
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$5.84
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.44
$2.64
$3.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
MGNX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.60%
Comparison:
MGNX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -17.54% lower than the industry
& is -29.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
MGNX
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.86%
Monthly returns:
3.44%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 63.68% above industry average
Classification:
MGNX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
MGNX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
10.18%
Weekly Volatility:
22.76%
Monthly Volatility:
45.51%
Yearly Volatility:
157.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.70% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-20.73%
Weekly VaR:
-46.35%
Monthly VaR:
-92.70%
How Much Can the price of
MGNX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-80%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$0.85
This translates to price declining to:
$0.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
MGNX is a 554.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 460.54% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 114.06% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
MGNX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.653
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.923
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.687
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.936
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.422
Beta is 35.62% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 67.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.249
Alpha is 75.70% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1586% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
MGNX
Equity cost of capital:
0.164
Equity cost of capital is 48.24% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -102.76% below industry average
EPS:
-$3.56
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -78.28% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.32
EBITDA per share
-$3.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
MGNX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
69.84
-
-
MGNX is -101.33% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.71
Price to sales ratio is -90.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-21.13%
Net income growth rate is -129.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.95%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-12.89%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.47%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -82.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-28.91%
Annual debt growth is -121% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.097
Statistical significance of correlation:
MGNX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -71.45% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.082
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.485
Kurtosis
386.7
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
17.044
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
MGNX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
382%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-310.54%
Operating profit margin is -27.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
382%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-121.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 112.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-80.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 292.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.25
Current ratio is -59.83% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1936.2
Cash conversion cycle is -463.24% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-2.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
164.5K
Each employee generates -90% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 482.1K
Each employee generates -225% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 508.9K
Each employee generates -498% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 138.4K
Each employee generates -194% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
124.7K
Each employee generates -194% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 11.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -408.39% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
MGNX
SERES THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:MCRB)
PRELUDE THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:PRLD)
FIBROGEN, INC. (XNAS:FGEN)
APOLLO MEDICAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:AMEH)
KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KYMR)
GENERATION BIO CO. (XNAS:GBIO)
DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:DCPH)
AMARIN CORPORATION PLC (XNAS:AMRN)
REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:RVNC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
70.25M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.68M
67.56M
222.89M
-
64.23M
-
- 1422.00K
285.70M
-
-
11.44M
- 205844.00K
- 218140.00K
- 217286.00K
- 217286.00K
-
- 217286.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.91M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.27M
Change in Working Capital :
226.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 4520.00K
Other Working Capital:
11.28M
Other Non-Cash Items:
334.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 57696.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1415.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 54077.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
47.33M
136.66M
183.99M
14.91M
4.60M
14.71M
218.20M
36.03M
-
-
-
-
17.21M
53.24M
-
271.45M
3.73M
4.84M
-
25.56M
32.97M
67.10M
19.51M
258.00K
26.13M
-
93.23M
613.00K
- 1040379.00K
- 283.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
288.39M
178.21M
271.45M
-
24.35M
- 22979.0K
37.01M
-
- 18482.00K
-
-
-
-
37.00K
37.00K
-
- 76141.00K
47.33M
123.47M
- 57696.00K
- 1415.00K
- 59111.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
MGNX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.81
$5.43
$6.13
$6.93
$7.82