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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lyft, Inc. (XNAS:LYFT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LYFT
Name:
LYFT, INC. (XNAS:LYFT)
Sector:
- 182653.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Logan Green
Total Employees:
4,453
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 15.80% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LYFT, INC.(LYFT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.6
One Month Price Target:
$14.74
Six Month Price Target :
$15.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.3
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.7
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.21
This week:
$11.49
This month :
$8.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
352.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.97%
-29.91%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.06
$18.15
$8.14
$11.05
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$17.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.57
$12.00
$12.63
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LYFT
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.61%
Comparison:
LYFT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -266.63% lower than the industry
& is -170.46% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LYFT
Daily returns:
-0.07%
Weekly returns:
-0.33%
Monthly returns:
-1.30%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -257.30% below industry average
Classification:
LYFT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.11
Statistical test of Returns:
LYFT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.61%
Weekly Volatility:
10.30%
Monthly Volatility:
20.60%
Yearly Volatility:
71.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.26%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.52%
Weekly VaR:
-21.30%
Monthly VaR:
-42.60%
How Much Can the price of
LYFT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$8.99
This translates to price declining to:
$2.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LYFT is a 200.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 157.56% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.14% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LYFT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.74
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.252
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.77
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.93
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.246
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.113
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.375
Beta is 26.23% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is 29.92% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.307
Alpha is 1198.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1952% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LYFT
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 22.26% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.15%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.15%
WACC is 35.96% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$9.85
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.45
Annual revenue growth rate is -95.24% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.45
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-35.85%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -231.06% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$2.80
EBITDA per share
-$1.66
Valuation Analysis Today of
LYFT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
320.95
-
-
LYFT is -103.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.48
Price to sales ratio is -87.08% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.45
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-21.27%
Net income growth rate is -108.71% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
85.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
76.01%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.46%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.26% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-13.45
Interest coverage ratio is -125.32% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
22.54%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.498
Statistical significance of correlation:
LYFT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -1.04% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.045
Kurtosis
8.142
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.365
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LYFT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-24.90%
Operating profit margin is 29.96% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
208%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.58%
Effective tax rate is -105.98% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-67.27%
Return on equity (ROE) is 414.32% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-16.34%
Return on assets (ROA) is 325.33% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.14
Current ratio is -61.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28
Cash conversion cycle is -129.54% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-19.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
780.4K
Each employee generates 126% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 131.7K
Each employee generates -1326% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 174.9K
Each employee generates 903% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 41.0K
Each employee generates 428% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
411.6K
Each employee generates 428% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 0.31%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -79.71% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LYFT
ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:ON)
ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:ENPH)
WIX.COM LTD (XNAS:WIX)
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (XNAS:ZI)
MONGODB, INC. (XNAS:MDB)
MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:MPWR)
ENTEGRIS, INC. (XNAS:ENTG)
COUPA SOFTWARE INCORPORATED (XNAS:COUP)
PTC INC. (XNAS:PTC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.47B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.68B
1.80B
866.48M
924.99M
1.38B
459.12M
411.90M
2.66B
6.78M
43.62M
136.69M
- 586556.00K
- 865333.00K
- 778952.00K
- 766858.00K
12.09M
- 778952.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
31.79M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
153.74M
Change in Working Capital :
- 129532.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 2748.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 11410.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 152343.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 30310.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 661728.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
214.87M
2.02B
2.24B
-
-
699.02M
2.94B
526.84M
180.48M
48.42M
70.20M
-
1.01B
1.83B
-
4.77B
95.57M
107.63M
-
108.05M
2.27B
2.58B
987.42M
45.87M
1.03B
-
3.61B
3.00K
- 8553016.00K
- 10212.0K
9.72B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.34B
1.16B
4.77B
2.09B
1.10B
880.2M
602.11M
15.69M
- 74242.00K
- 20297.00K
-
-
-
- 1717.00K
- 22014.00K
89.00K
- 248510.00K
282.68M
531.19M
- 152343.00K
- 30310.00K
- 182653.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LYFT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.35
$18.26
$20.39
$22.76
$25.42