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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Luther Burbank Corporation (XNAS:LBC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LBC
Name:
LUTHER BURBANK CORPORATION (XNAS:LBC)
Sector:
34.72M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Ms. Simone Lagomarsino
Total Employees:
281
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2801.77% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LUTHER BURBANK CORPORATION(LBC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
12.68
One Month Price Target:
$12.73
Six Month Price Target :
$12.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$12.63
Price Upper limit ($) :
$12.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.03
This week:
$11.22
This month :
$9.76
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
638.44M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.07M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.5%
-12.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.71
$14.32
$9.65
$11.04
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.57
$11.49
$11.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LBC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.50%
Comparison:
LBC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 22.34% higher than the industry
& is -34.06% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LBC
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.94%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.22% above industry average
Classification:
LBC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
LBC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.67%
Monthly Volatility:
11.33%
Yearly Volatility:
39.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.58%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.16%
Weekly VaR:
-11.53%
Monthly VaR:
-23.06%
How Much Can the price of
LBC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.89%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.16
This translates to price declining to:
$2.55
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LBC is a 62.77% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 39.44% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LBC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.346
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.342
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.653
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.126
Beta is -39.53% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -29.37% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.29%
Sustainable growth rate is 12.69% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.035
Alpha is 197.40% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 220% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LBC
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -19.88% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.62%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.44%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.44%
WACC is -35.67% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.97
Annual revenue growth rate is 61.55% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.02%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 108.11% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.84
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.78
EBITDA per share
$3.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
LBC
P/E Ratio:
6.96
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
8.76
P/E ratio is -20.57% lower than main peers & is -43.94% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $22.21
LBC is -42.91% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.63
Price to sales ratio is -15.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.97
Price to free cash flow: 6.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is -69.68% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
115.79%
Net income growth rate is 110.25% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.75%
Dividend yeild: 3.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.15
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.09
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.78%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-05--$0.12
2021-11-04--$0.12
2021-05-06--$0.06
2022-02-03--$0.12
2021-08-05--$0.12
2021-02-04--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -54.24% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
135.96%
Net debt to equity ratio:
113.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
12.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.47%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -92.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.59
Interest coverage ratio is 333.71% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.71%
Annual debt growth is -1902% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.38
Statistical significance of correlation:
LBC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -24.13% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.014
Kurtosis
5.451
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.161
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LBC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
69.50%
Operating profit margin is 94.07% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
28.99%
Effective tax rate is 34.54% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.81%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is -44.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.77%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
634.9K
Each employee generates 67% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
653.1K
Each employee generates 189% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
328.4K
Each employee generates 132% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
123.6K
Each employee generates 49% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates 49% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LBC
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONP)
FIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:THFF)
OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRT)
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. (XNAS:NEWT)
CAMBRIDGE BANCORP (XNAS:CATC)
Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co III (XNAS:KVSC)
MONEYGRAM INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MGI)
TriState Capital Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TSCBP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
178.41M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
32.64M
33.71M
1.07M
-
-
227.83M
51.05M
2.51M
183.52M
124.00M
92.28M
129.96M
37.67M
92.28M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
603.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
710.00K
Change in Working Capital :
7.22M
Accounts Receivables:
- 253.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 103.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 33140.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
147.96M
624.86M
772.82M
18.01M
-
-
-
15.59M
3.30M
-
639.77M
-
-
658.66M
7.92B
7.26B
153.00K
-
-
-
-
-
908.20M
-
908.20M
7.50B
6.59B
401.10M
278.86M
- 11958.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
668.00M
7.26B
1.26B
908.20M
760.2M
38.33M
- 80621.00K
- 75539.00K
- 100000.00K
-
- 6512.00K
- 6225.00K
163.00M
50.27M
-
9.55M
147.96M
138.41M
34.82M
- 103.00K
34.72M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LBC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.08
$17.86
$18.68
$19.53
$20.42