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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Loews Corporation (XNYS:L) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
L
Name:
LOEWS CORPORATION (XNYS:L)
Sector:
302.00M
Industry:
Insurance�Property & Casualty
CEO:
Mr. James Tisch
Total Employees:
10,340
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -257.88% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LOEWS CORPORATION(L) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�PROPERTY & CASUALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
55.43
One Month Price Target:
$55.68
Six Month Price Target :
$56.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$58.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$55.22
Price Upper limit ($) :
$55.69
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$52.62
This week:
$49.14
This month :
$42.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.33B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
240.95M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.45%
-16.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.49
$62.50
$42.37
$48.36
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$60.54
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.26
$50.30
$51.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
L
Sharpe Ratio:
1.49%
Comparison:
L, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 7.70% higher than the industry
& is -34.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
L
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.92%
Yearly returns:
10.43%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 5.87% above industry average
Classification:
L, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
1
Statistical test of Returns:
L has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.58%
Monthly Volatility:
11.16%
Yearly Volatility:
38.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.63%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -74.63% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.08%
Weekly VaR:
-11.35%
Monthly VaR:
-22.71%
How Much Can the price of
L
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-78.65%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.59
This translates to price declining to:
$11.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
L is a 60.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.60% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
L
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.608
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.86
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.567
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.625
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.019
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.991
Beta is -18.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.555
Beta is 45.81% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.80%
Sustainable growth rate is 37.05% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.023
Alpha is -32.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 149% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
L
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is 25.05% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.26%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.36%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.36%
WACC is 22.19% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$56.23
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -75.82% below industry average
EPS:
$6.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
25.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 62.01% higher than the Insurance�Property & Casualty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.52
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.96%
Equity growth rate per share is -97.87% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$36.87
EBITDA per share
$10.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
L
P/E Ratio:
12.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
98.39
P/E ratio is -86.91% lower than main peers & is -26.42% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $112.68
L is -50.81% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $57.58
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.93
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.99
Price to sales ratio is -58.90% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.75
Price to free cash flow: 5.82
Price to free cash flow ratio is -55.63% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
208.32%
Net income growth rate is -813.75% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.97%
Dividend yeild: 0.45%
Previous Dividend: $0.06
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.06
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Expected next dividend best case: $0.06
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.06
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.06
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.08%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/05/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/10/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-24--$0.06
2021-11-23--$0.06
2021-05-25--$0.06
2022-02-22--$0.06
2021-08-17--$0.06
2021-02-23--$0.06
Dividend growth rate is -99.83% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
53.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
51.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.22%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.71%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -83.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.35
Interest coverage ratio is 31.80% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-10.19%
Annual debt growth is 353% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.27%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.603
Statistical significance of correlation:
L has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.6
Stock price is 0.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.6
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.052
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.075
Kurtosis
9.981
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.37
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
L
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.10%
Operating profit margin is -354.52% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.43%
Effective tax rate is 2.22% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.98%
Return on equity (ROE) is 22.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 36.44% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
0.61
Current ratio is 0.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.3M
Each employee generates 9% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
242.5K
Each employee generates 21% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
160.1K
Each employee generates 13% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
29.2K
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.8M
Each employee generates -52% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
L
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC. (XNYS:FNF)
W. R. BERKLEY CORPORATION (XNYS:WRB)
ALTERITY THERAPEUTICS LIMITED (XASX:ATH)
EQUITABLE HOLDINGS, INC (XNYS:EQH)
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC. (XNYS:FDS)
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:NMR)
Markel Corporation (XNYS:MKL)
apo MultiAsset Mandat Protect PB
ALLY FINANCIAL INC. (XNYS:ALLY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
13.55B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
395.00M
-
2.51B
2.18B
1.66B
2.24B
457.00M
1.66B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 280000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
333.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
423.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 121000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
28.00M
Purchases of Investments:
- 2622000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
798.00M
46.59B
47.39B
9.26B
-
-
-
9.90B
348.00M
-
50.03B
-
-
60.28B
139.42B
79.14B
396.00M
393.00M
-
-
-
789.00M
8.88B
-
14.13B
74.79B
61.45B
2.00M
15.10B
- 1251000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
11.31B
16.58B
78.02B
96.63B
9.28B
8.5B
2.49B
36.00M
- 187000.00K
- 300000.00K
-
- 132000.00K
- 16000.00K
392.00M
- 56000.00K
- 3000.00K
177.00M
798.00M
621.00M
423.00M
- 121000.00K
302.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
L
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$58.73
$275.18
$290.15
$305.93
$322.57