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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lockheed Martin Corporation (XNYS:LMT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LMT
Name:
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION (XNYS:LMT)
Sector:
1.14B
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. James D. Taiclet Jr.
Total Employees:
114,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 730.96% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION(LMT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
418.57
One Month Price Target:
$420.11
Six Month Price Target :
$427.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$437.03
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$417.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$420.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$402.1
This week:
$381.75
This month :
$344.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
110.98B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
265.15M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.73%
-12.76%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$494.98
$459.96
$342.16
$377.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$448.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$441.09
$388.48
$396.05
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LMT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.12%
Comparison:
LMT, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 3.24% higher than the industry
& is -50.86% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LMT
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -29.97% below industry average
Classification:
LMT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.76
Statistical test of Returns:
LMT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.93%
Weekly Volatility:
4.32%
Monthly Volatility:
8.63%
Yearly Volatility:
29.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.93%
Weekly VaR:
-8.80%
Monthly VaR:
-17.59%
How Much Can the price of
LMT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-15%
Worst case (decline):
-60.94%
This translates to price declining to:
$354.91
This translates to price declining to:
$163.48
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LMT is a 24.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 6.38% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -38.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LMT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.519
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.735
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.339
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.43
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.615
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.063
Beta is -38.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -34.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
40.90%
Sustainable growth rate is 105.27% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.003
Alpha is -184.57% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -21% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LMT
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -23.90% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.95%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.84%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.83%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.83%
WACC is -14.73% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$247.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -69.64% below industry average
EPS:
$22.65
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.00%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -86.76% lower than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$27.26
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.28%
Equity growth rate per share is -15801.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$42.03
EBITDA per share
$35.15
Valuation Analysis Today of
LMT
P/E Ratio:
24.21
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.76
P/E ratio is 53.69% higher than main peers & is -48.47% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1,064.38
LMT is -60.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $201.75
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $184.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.69
Price to sales ratio is -82.25% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.1
Price to free cash flow: 15.36
Price to free cash flow ratio is -76.28% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
27.16%
Net income growth rate is 797.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.35%
Dividend yeild: 2.63%
Previous Dividend: $2.80
Previous adjusted dividend: $2.80
Previous Dividend: $11.00
Expected next dividend best case: $2.94
Expected next dividend worst case: $2.66
Average dividend payment (long-term): $2.58
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.60%
Expected next dividend payment date: 22/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 30/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 24/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-31--$2.80
2021-11-30--$2.80
2021-05-28--$2.60
2022-02-28--$2.80
2021-08-31--$2.60
2021-02-26--$2.60
Dividend growth rate is -112.10% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
111.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
97.60%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -59.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.53
Interest coverage ratio is 98.72% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.05%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.558
Statistical significance of correlation:
LMT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is 3.13% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.041
Kurtosis
11.207
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.508
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LMT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
53%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.50%
Operating profit margin is -102.71% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
53%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.07%
Effective tax rate is -32.29% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
62.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 684.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is 182.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.27
Current ratio is -59.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
68
Cash conversion cycle is -88.19% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.87%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
576.8K
Each employee generates 67% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
81.8K
Each employee generates 118% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
54.5K
Each employee generates 747% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.0K
Each employee generates -531% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
273.0K
Each employee generates -531% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LMT
3M COMPANY (XNYS:MMM)
GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY (XNYS:GE)
Canadian National Railway Company (XNYS:CNI)
CATERPILLAR INC. (XNYS:CAT)
ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. (XNYS:ITW)
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORPORATION (XNYS:NSC)
THE BOEING COMPANY (XNYS:BA)
CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LIMITED (XNYS:CP)
FEDEX CORPORATION (XNYS:FDX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�29%
Buy�13%
Hold�50%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
65.75B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
57.00B
8.75B
-
-
-
-
- 90000.00K
- 90000.00K
-
564.00M
1.36B
9.32B
8.87B
6.21B
7.40B
1.19B
6.21B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
329.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 411000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
54.00M
Change in Working Capital :
43.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 564000.00K
Other Working Capital:
492.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 338000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.41B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/27/22
2022
Q1
1.88B
-
1.88B
14.66B
3.14B
706.00M
20.39B
7.56B
10.81B
2.64B
-
2.69B
7.42B
31.12B
-
51.51B
2.60B
500.00M
2.67B
7.90B
5.05B
16.05B
11.15B
14.32B
25.46B
-
41.51B
265.00M
20.72B
- 10979000.0K
-
March 27, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
56.94B
10.00B
51.51B
-
11.65B
9.8B
-
- 251000.00K
- 251000.00K
-
-
- 2000000.00K
- 767000.00K
- 113000.00K
- 2880000.00K
-
- 1721000.00K
1.88B
3.60B
1.41B
- 268000.00K
1.14B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LMT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$501.74
$523.87
$546.98
$571.11
$596.30