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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Liveperson, Inc. (XNAS:LPSN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LPSN
Name:
LIVEPERSON, INC. (XNAS:LPSN)
Sector:
- 36745.00K
Industry:
Software�Application
CEO:
Mr. Robert LoCascio
Total Employees:
1,540
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -104.23% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIVEPERSON, INC.(LPSN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�APPLICATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.77
One Month Price Target:
$10.85
Six Month Price Target :
$11.24
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.68
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.85
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.72
This week:
$8.43
This month :
$6.08
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
813.88M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
40.32%
-25.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.64
$13.44
$5.90
$8.10
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.73
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.26
$8.81
$9.28
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LPSN
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.67%
Comparison:
LPSN, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -272.93% lower than the industry
& is -173.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LPSN
Daily returns:
-0.07%
Weekly returns:
-0.35%
Monthly returns:
-1.39%
Yearly returns:
9.94%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -268.01% below industry average
Classification:
LPSN, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.41
Statistical test of Returns:
LPSN has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.70%
Weekly Volatility:
10.52%
Monthly Volatility:
21.04%
Yearly Volatility:
72.87%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.68%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 20.77% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.73%
Weekly VaR:
-21.76%
Monthly VaR:
-43.52%
How Much Can the price of
LPSN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.54
This translates to price declining to:
$1.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LPSN is a 207.13% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 163.12% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.86% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LPSN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.835
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.181
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.257
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.377
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.654
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.676
Beta is -22.72% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.335
Beta is -3.03% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.287
Alpha is 1116.25% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1828% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LPSN
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -2.26% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.38%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.05%
WACC is -28.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.56
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.48
Annual revenue growth rate is -50.81% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.57%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -79.65% lower than the Software�Application industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$9.83
EBITDA per share
-$1.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
LPSN
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
72.04
-
-
LPSN is -102.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.64
Price to sales ratio is -85.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.48
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
323.47%
Net income growth rate is 32.48% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
408.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
147.13%
Debt to assets ratio:
61.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
22.04%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 11.62% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.64
Interest coverage ratio is -106.85% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.26%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.401
Statistical significance of correlation:
LPSN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.503
Stock price is -20.34% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.503
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.065
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.177
Kurtosis
11.601
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.498
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LPSN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-29.43%
Operating profit margin is 53.58% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
260%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.02%
Effective tax rate is -96.13% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-93.79%
Return on equity (ROE) is 617.09% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-14.05%
Return on assets (ROA) is 265.76% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.6x
Current Ratio:
2.48
Current ratio is -17.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
33.5
Cash conversion cycle is -64.66% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-18.84%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
319.4K
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 68.0K
Each employee generates -733% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 109.8K
Each employee generates 530% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 23.9K
Each employee generates 207% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
379.7K
Each employee generates 207% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 46.10%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 2915.10% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LPSN
VERTEX, INC. (XNAS:VERX)
BIGCOMMERCE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:BIGC)
RIOT BLOCKCHAIN, INC. (XNAS:RIOT)
NETSCOUT SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:NTCT)
CHICKEN SOUP FOR THE SOUL ENTERTAINMENT INC. (XNAS:CSSEN)
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UCTT)
SHOALS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SHLS)
ECHOSTAR CORPORATION (XNAS:SATS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�21%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
491.93M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
172.93M
319.00M
139.27M
227.34M
413.94M
186.60M
- 90087.00K
463.12M
-
28.77M
37.42M
- 104705.00K
- 144764.00K
- 169143.00K
- 170889.00K
- 1746.00K
- 169143.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.54M
Differed Income Tax :
218.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
31.87M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4349.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 16331.00K
Other Working Capital:
10.73M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.22M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 22872.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 13135.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 6026.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
480.68M
-
480.68M
108.52M
-
30.11M
619.31M
135.85M
305.43M
90.18M
2.79M
5.19M
45.32M
584.76M
-
1.20B
26.06M
8.65M
1.20M
112.32M
103.00M
250.02M
737.38M
33.71M
773.70M
-
1.02B
77.00K
- 531979.00K
- 7263.0K
719.51M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
636.05M
180.35M
1.20B
-
746.03M
265.4M
-
- 738.00K
- 19899.00K
- 920.00K
-
-
-
1.92M
1.00M
600.00K
- 41170.00K
482.36M
523.53M
- 22872.00K
- 13873.00K
- 36745.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LPSN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.75
$12.77
$13.88
$15.09
$16.40