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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (XNYS:LYV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LYV
Name:
LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNYS:LYV)
Sector:
1.14B
Industry:
Entertainment
CEO:
Mr. Michael Rapino
Total Employees:
10,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -75.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC.(LYV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
89.64
One Month Price Target:
$90.3
Six Month Price Target :
$93.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$97.55
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$89.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$90.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$83.25
This week:
$75.35
This month :
$61.06
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
20.45B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
229.97M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.37%
-16.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$119.29
$105.61
$59.99
$73.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$101.16
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.24
$78.08
$81.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LYV
Sharpe Ratio:
2.56%
Comparison:
LYV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 702.33% higher than the industry
& ratio is 12.38% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LYV
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.50%
Monthly returns:
1.98%
Yearly returns:
6.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 250.43% above industry average
Classification:
LYV, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
LYV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.52%
Weekly Volatility:
7.87%
Monthly Volatility:
15.74%
Yearly Volatility:
54.53%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -90.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.13%
Weekly VaR:
-15.94%
Monthly VaR:
-31.89%
How Much Can the price of
LYV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.38
This translates to price declining to:
$13.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LYV is a 125.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 92.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.05% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LYV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.31
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.816
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.154
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.106
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.028
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.87
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.671
Beta is 95.53% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.34
Beta is -2.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
143.42%
Sustainable growth rate is 302.70% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.116
Alpha is -309.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 740% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LYV
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -1.53% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-0.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.66%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.89%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.89%
WACC is -10.66% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$33.83
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-39.81
Annual revenue growth rate is -274.95% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.05
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
436.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1280.48% higher than the Entertainment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.43
-
-
Debt per share
$29.81
EBITDA per share
$0.76
Valuation Analysis Today of
LYV
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
38.81
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
LYV is -261.76% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.65
Price to sales ratio is 0.09% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-39.81
Price to free cash flow: 7.21
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.31% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1164.69%
Net income growth rate is 465.28% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-1323.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-334.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
42.83%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.63
Interest coverage ratio is -99.15% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
48.74%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.579
Statistical significance of correlation:
LYV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.508
Stock price is 13.94% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.508
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.027
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.055
Kurtosis
5.106
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.171
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LYV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
110%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1.13%
Operating profit margin is -117.07% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
110%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.85%
Effective tax rate is -105.48% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
79.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is 54.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -159.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
0.98
Current ratio is -40.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-176.2
Cash conversion cycle is -464.34% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-11.93%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
762.8K
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
17.2K
Each employee generates -95% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 40.5K
Each employee generates -135% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
111.4K
Each employee generates -317846% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
774.1K
Each employee generates -317846% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LYV
Telefonica SA (XNYS:TEF)
Rogers Communications Inc. (XNYS:RCI)
Orange SA (XNYS:ORAN)
PINTEREST, INC. (XNYS:PINS)
TWITTER, INC. (XNYS:TWTR)
TELUS Corporation (XNYS:TU)
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (XNYS:CHT)
WPP PLC (XNYS:WPP)
OMNICOM GROUP INC. (XNYS:OMC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
7.78B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.22B
1.76B
-
1.56B
2.13B
-
808.24M
2.94B
13.04M
278.38M
307.45M
175.91M
- 87626.00K
- 412748.00K
- 332194.00K
2.83M
- 412748.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
50.76M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
49.24M
Change in Working Capital :
1.15B
Accounts Receivables:
- 152725.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.20B
Investments in PP&E:
- 62525.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13962.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
5.87B
-
5.87B
1.21B
-
1.03B
8.11B
2.74B
2.60B
1.00B
-
-
1.55B
7.90B
-
16.01B
1.80B
750.37M
-
4.05B
1.67B
8.28B
6.86B
1.39B
8.25B
-
16.52B
2.24M
- 3317397.00K
- 84341.0K
2.88B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.09B
- 517817.00K
16.01B
-
7.61B
1.7B
464.00K
- 38930.00K
- 114953.00K
- 12784.00K
-
-
-
- 62257.00K
- 75041.00K
- 21079.00K
987.23M
5.88B
4.89B
1.20B
- 62525.00K
1.14B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LYV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$97.86
$106.49
$115.88
$126.10
$137.22