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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Littelfuse, Inc. (XNAS:LFUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LFUS
Name:
LITTELFUSE, INC. (XNAS:LFUS)
Sector:
21.92M
Industry:
Electronic Components
CEO:
Mr. David Heinzmann
Total Employees:
17,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 385.83% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LITTELFUSE, INC.(LFUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
227.26
One Month Price Target:
$228.77
Six Month Price Target :
$236.3
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$245.34
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$226.41
Price Upper limit ($) :
$228.39
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$215.44
This week:
$200.82
This month :
$174.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.75M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.02%
-19.%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$282.11
$256.86
$172.41
$197.66
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$248.64
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$243.25
$205.81
$211.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LFUS
Sharpe Ratio:
2.08%
Comparison:
LFUS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 2.50% higher than the industry
& is -8.77% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LFUS
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
15.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -5.44% below industry average
Classification:
LFUS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
LFUS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.56%
Weekly Volatility:
5.73%
Monthly Volatility:
11.46%
Yearly Volatility:
39.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.15%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.03% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.20%
Weekly VaR:
-11.63%
Monthly VaR:
-23.27%
How Much Can the price of
LFUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.60%
This translates to price declining to:
$182.12
This translates to price declining to:
$44.08
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LFUS is a 64.22% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.55% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LFUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.18
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.036
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.931
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.652
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.884
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.367
Beta is -13.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.174
Beta is 0.87% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -14.08% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.037
Alpha is -20.23% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 233% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LFUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.113
Equity cost of capital is 0.62% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.86%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.81%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.22%
WACC is 1.98% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$90.47
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.81
-
EPS:
$13.77
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 32.38% higher than the Electronic Components industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.16
-
-
Debt per share
$25.70
EBITDA per share
$21.14
Valuation Analysis Today of
LFUS
P/E Ratio:
16.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
800.88
P/E ratio is -97.97% lower than main peers & is -32.10% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $330.24
LFUS is -31.18% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $180.21
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $20.96
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.51
Price to sales ratio is -4.53% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.81
Price to free cash flow: 20.37
Price to free cash flow ratio is -60.95% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.81%
Dividend yeild: 0.93%
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.53
Previous Dividend: $2.12
Expected next dividend best case: $0.55
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.51
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.04%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 24/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/09/2022
Previous dividend record date: 26/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 28/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-25--$0.53
2021-11-17--$0.53
2021-05-19--$0.48
2022-02-23--$0.53
2021-08-18--$0.53
2021-02-17--$0.48
Dividend growth rate is -109.98% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
31.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.22%
Debt to assets ratio:
19.93%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.86% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.82
Interest coverage ratio is 108.03% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.526
Statistical significance of correlation:
LFUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.614
Stock price is -14.40% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.614
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.034
Kurtosis
8.59
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.159
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LFUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.53%
Operating profit margin is 137.12% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
155%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.62%
Effective tax rate is -1.88% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is -0.54% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.76%
Return on assets (ROA) is 53.78% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
3.61
Current ratio is 40.88% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.3
Cash conversion cycle is -143.62% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
131.7K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
30.8K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
20.2K
Each employee generates 23% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.3K
Each employee generates -147% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
110.3K
Each employee generates -147% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LFUS
CDK GLOBAL, INC. (XNAS:CDK)
COHERENT, INC. (XNAS:COHR)
II-VI INCORPORATED (XNAS:IIVI)
APPIAN CORPORATION (XNAS:APPN)
BLACKLINE, INC (XNAS:BL)
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
SILICON LABORATORIES INC. (XNAS:SLAB)
MICROSTRATEGY INCORPORATED (XNAS:MSTR)
LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:LAZR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
2.24B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.37B
870.06M
70.76M
-
292.68M
-
44.93M
408.37M
-
18.16M
102.74M
523.33M
459.75M
343.61M
402.44M
58.83M
343.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.30M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2112.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.89M
Change in Working Capital :
- 113753.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 45945.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.89M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
51.73M
Investments in PP&E:
- 29809.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
461.62M
27.00K
461.64M
319.46M
470.55M
66.56M
1.32B
479.60M
926.73M
391.86M
34.37M
17.12M
25.28M
1.87B
-
3.19B
212.64M
9.75M
31.94M
1.22M
141.74M
365.34M
636.25M
110.23M
827.17M
-
1.19B
260.00K
1.37B
- 75666.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.78B
2.00B
3.19B
34.40M
646.00M
184.4M
-
21.00K
- 29788.00K
- 25000.00K
-
-
- 13086.00K
1.02M
- 37070.00K
- 2738.00K
- 17865.00K
464.97M
482.84M
51.73M
- 29809.00K
21.92M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LFUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$246.57
$3,998.56
$4,316.71
$4,660.16
$5,030.95