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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:LIND) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LIND
Name:
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LIND)
Sector:
- 2360.00K
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Sven-Olof Lindblad
Total Employees:
720
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -53.20% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC.(LIND) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
8.16
One Month Price Target:
$8.26
Six Month Price Target :
$8.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$9.3
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$8.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$8.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$7.23
This week:
$6.08
This month :
$4.
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
432.77M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.10M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
36.22%
-35.58%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.48
$10.50
$3.84
$5.82
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$9.86
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.44
$6.45
$6.88
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LIND
Sharpe Ratio:
0.94%
Comparison:
LIND, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 249.65% higher than the industry
& is -58.88% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LIND
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.22%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 338.07% above industry average
Classification:
LIND, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.73
Statistical test of Returns:
LIND has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.58%
Weekly Volatility:
12.47%
Monthly Volatility:
24.95%
Yearly Volatility:
86.42%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -55.48% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.40%
Weekly VaR:
-25.48%
Monthly VaR:
-50.96%
How Much Can the price of
LIND
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-44%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.54
This translates to price declining to:
$1.22
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LIND is a 259.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 208.14% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.30% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LIND
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.09
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.048
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.482
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.155
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.977
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.422
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.429
Beta is 45.90% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is 12.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.028
Alpha is -77.83% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -176% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LIND
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 10.22% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-1.30%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.82%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.80%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.80%
WACC is -5.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-18.25
Annual revenue growth rate is 144.89% above the industry average
EPS:
-$2.64
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$10.32
EBITDA per share
-$1.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
LIND
P/E Ratio:
23.06
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.35
P/E ratio is -24.02% lower than main peers & is -95.38% lower than the industry
-
LIND is -100.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.03
Price to sales ratio is -76.88% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-18.25
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1050.93%
Net income growth rate is -888.25% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-1434.25%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1096.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.81%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -21.55% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2.06
Interest coverage ratio is -26.50% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.59%
Annual debt growth is 52% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 37.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.423
Statistical significance of correlation:
LIND has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is -24.22% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
7.156
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.396
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LIND
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-53.48%
Operating profit margin is -85.16% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
39%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.50%
Effective tax rate is -100.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
334.23%
Return on equity (ROE) is -640.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-15.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is 32.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
0.72
Current ratio is -55.07% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
1.6
Cash conversion cycle is -98.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
296.1K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 79.1K
Each employee generates 846% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 177.3K
Each employee generates 157% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.3K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
852.2K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LIND
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
OneWater Marine Inc (XNAS:ONEW)
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:LQDT)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CHUY)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
213.17M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
174.15M
39.02M
-
72.27M
110.58M
38.31M
42.46M
153.03M
-
27.63M
42.47M
- 56962.00K
- 114013.00K
- 127688.00K
- 126826.00K
632.00K
- 127688.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.17M
Differed Income Tax :
- 149.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.83M
Change in Working Capital :
24.83M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
29.56M
Other Non-Cash Items:
9.63M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.16M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7522.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
154.82M
-
154.82M
-
10.07M
62.16M
227.05M
543.26M
42.02M
12.83M
-
7.76M
7.72M
613.59M
-
840.64M
-
25.64M
-
242.16M
48.34M
316.14M
547.94M
300.00K
548.24M
-
864.38M
5.00K
- 183717.00K
-
60.31M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
327.19M
- 38204.00K
826.18M
-
573.58M
418.8M
-
-
- 7522.00K
- 334684.00K
-
-
-
349.21M
14.53M
-
12.17M
184.86M
172.69M
5.16M
- 7522.00K
- 2360.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LIND
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$9.33
$10.64
$12.13
$13.83
$15.76