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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Liberty Media Corporation (XNAS:LSXMK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LSXMK
Name:
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMK)
Sector:
329.00M
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
None
Total Employees:
6,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -172.95% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION(LSXMK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
41.19
One Month Price Target:
$41.45
Six Month Price Target :
$42.75
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$44.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$41.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$41.37
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$39.08
This week:
$36.48
This month :
$31.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
612.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.19%
-21.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.96
$46.51
$31.42
$35.87
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$45.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.11
$37.31
$38.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LSXMK
Sharpe Ratio:
0.09%
Comparison:
LSXMK, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -92.64% lower than the industry
& is -95.87% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LSXMK
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.22%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -76.42% below industry average
Classification:
LSXMK, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.64
Statistical test of Returns:
LSXMK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.58%
Monthly Volatility:
11.15%
Yearly Volatility:
38.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.18%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -92.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.11%
Weekly VaR:
-11.43%
Monthly VaR:
-22.86%
How Much Can the price of
LSXMK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-79.18%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.92
This translates to price declining to:
$8.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LSXMK is a 61.32% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 38.20% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -17.38% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LSXMK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.805
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.138
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.599
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.642
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.932
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.244
Beta is -9.49% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is -6.39% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.082
Alpha is -279441.12% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -521% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LSXMK
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -4.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.98%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.35%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.35%
WACC is -2.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$16.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.36
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.82% below industry average
EPS:
$2.63
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
75.93%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 203.08% higher than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -2.24%
Equity growth rate per share is -103.15% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$26.89
EBITDA per share
$3.63
Valuation Analysis Today of
LSXMK
P/E Ratio:
60.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.34
P/E ratio is 115.13% higher than main peers & is 354.16% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $35.31
LSXMK is 16.65% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.54
Price to sales ratio is 7.67% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.36
Price to free cash flow: 8.49
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.53% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
12.19%
Net income growth rate is 57.34% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 21.61%
Dividend yeild: 0.61%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $0.25
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.25
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-02-10--$0.25
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
85.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.92
Interest coverage ratio is -9.97% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.71%
Annual debt growth is -42% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.551
Statistical significance of correlation:
LSXMK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is 5.98% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.033
Kurtosis
18.071
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.07
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LSXMK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.55%
Operating profit margin is 282.64% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
203%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.83%
Effective tax rate is -99.30% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
5.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is 65.62% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -51.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
36.3
Cash conversion cycle is 5.80% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.91%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 60% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
326.9K
Each employee generates 26% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
136.8K
Each employee generates 53% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
48.4K
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.8M
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LSXMK
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMB)
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:LSXMA)
DISH NETWORK CORPORATION (XNAS:DISH)
Yandex NV (XNAS:YNDX)
WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP. (XNAS:WMG)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYB)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYA)
LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (XNAS:LBTYK)
DISCOVERY, INC. (XNAS:DISCB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.92B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.89B
5.04B
-
-
1.81B
-
915.00M
2.72B
-
567.00M
714.00M
2.22B
2.14B
930.00M
1.44B
12.00M
930.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
260.00M
Differed Income Tax :
55.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
55.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
551.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 111000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 9000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.29B
-
3.29B
841.00M
-
1.04B
5.17B
4.06B
19.27B
4.68B
947.00M
-
10.40B
39.35B
-
44.52B
-
2.58B
-
2.14B
1.64B
6.36B
16.47B
932.00M
19.63B
-
25.99B
-
441.00M
-
18.09B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.61B
18.53B
44.52B
-
19.05B
15.8B
-
131.00M
11.00M
- 1242000.00K
-
-
- 201000.00K
1.28B
- 164000.00K
- 2000.00K
2.71B
3.32B
606.00M
551.00M
- 222000.00K
329.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LSXMK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$44.53
$140.93
$151.60
$163.07
$175.41