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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Liberty Media Corporation (XNAS:FWONA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FWONA
Name:
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONA)
Sector:
329.00M
Industry:
Broadcasting
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Maffei
Total Employees:
6,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -67.07% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION(FWONA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BROADCASTING INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.3
One Month Price Target:
$58.67
Six Month Price Target :
$60.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$62.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$58.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$55.2
This week:
$51.36
This month :
$44.42
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
612.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.82%
-24.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.69
$66.04
$43.91
$50.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$63.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$62.46
$52.70
$54.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FWONA
Sharpe Ratio:
2.70%
Comparison:
FWONA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 110.84% higher than the industry
& ratio is 18.28% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FWONA
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.60%
Yearly returns:
11.39%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 68.00% above industry average
Classification:
FWONA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.94
Statistical test of Returns:
FWONA has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.63%
Weekly Volatility:
5.88%
Monthly Volatility:
11.76%
Yearly Volatility:
40.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -11.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.32%
Weekly VaR:
-11.90%
Monthly VaR:
-23.80%
How Much Can the price of
FWONA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.45%
This translates to price declining to:
$46.56
This translates to price declining to:
$10.23
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FWONA is a 67.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.86% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FWONA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.767
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.085
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.482
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.597
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.878
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.278
Beta is -11.86% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.203
Beta is -6.39% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.02%
Sustainable growth rate is -99.90% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.083
Alpha is 282625.22% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 527% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FWONA
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -4.62% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.30%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.03%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.03%
WACC is -10.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.39
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.93
Annual revenue growth rate is -75.17% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-15.31%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -161.11% lower than the Broadcasting industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.70
-
-
Debt per share
$26.89
EBITDA per share
$1.27
Valuation Analysis Today of
FWONA
P/E Ratio:
6593.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.03
P/E ratio is 32814.49% higher than main peers & is 49005.93% higher than the industry
-
FWONA is -260.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
7.89
Price to sales ratio is 234.24% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.93
Price to free cash flow: 21.63
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
17.12%
Net income growth rate is 121.08% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 209.38%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.88%
Net debt to equity ratio:
85.09%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.99%
Net debt to assets ratio:
35.41%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.13
Interest coverage ratio is -28.06% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.41%
Annual debt growth is -120% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 7.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.489
Statistical significance of correlation:
FWONA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.52
Stock price is -5.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.52
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
15.938
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.074
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FWONA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.15%
Operating profit margin is 115.78% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Effective Tax Rate:
-50.61%
Effective tax rate is -142.52% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.52%
Return on equity (ROE) is -82.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -93.40% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
0.81
Current ratio is -51.14% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
48.2
Cash conversion cycle is 40.53% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
57.29%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
665.4K
Each employee generates -27% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
114.3K
Each employee generates -56% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
14.1K
Each employee generates -84% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
48.4K
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
5.8M
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
FWONA
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:FWONK)
FIVE BELOW, INC. (XNAS:FIVE)
GENTEX CORPORATION (XNAS:GNTX)
ContextLogic Inc (XNAS:WISH)
BRP Inc. (XNAS:DOOO)
CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CHDN)
MATTEL, INC. (XNAS:MAT)
TEXAS ROADHOUSE, INC. (XNAS:TXRH)
PETCO HEALTH AND WELLNESS COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:WOOF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.53B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.63B
1.90B
-
-
649.00M
-
297.00M
946.00M
-
248.00M
557.00M
777.00M
550.00M
96.00M
245.00M
- 124000.00K
96.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
260.00M
Differed Income Tax :
55.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
55.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 115000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
551.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 111000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 9000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
3.29B
-
3.29B
841.00M
-
1.04B
5.17B
4.06B
19.27B
4.68B
947.00M
-
10.40B
39.35B
-
44.52B
-
2.58B
-
2.14B
1.64B
6.36B
16.47B
932.00M
19.63B
-
25.99B
-
441.00M
-
18.09B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.57B
18.53B
44.52B
-
19.05B
15.8B
-
131.00M
11.00M
- 1242000.00K
-
-
- 201000.00K
1.28B
- 164000.00K
- 2000.00K
1.25B
3.32B
2.07B
551.00M
- 222000.00K
329.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FWONA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.91
$67.67
$72.79
$78.30
$84.23