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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Liberty Media Corporation (XNAS:BATRK) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BATRK
Name:
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRK)
Sector:
440.00M
Industry:
Entertainment
CEO:
None
Total Employees:
6,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -61.49% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION(BATRK) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
27.5
One Month Price Target:
$27.67
Six Month Price Target :
$28.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$29.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$27.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.63
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$25.99
This week:
$24.12
This month :
$20.74
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
29.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
612.45M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.%
-19.77%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.52
$31.31
$20.48
$23.69
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$30.27
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$29.58
$24.72
$25.42
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BATRK
Sharpe Ratio:
0.71%
Comparison:
BATRK, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 121.03% higher than the industry
& is -69.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BATRK
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.56%
Yearly returns:
6.78%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -1.47% below industry average
Classification:
BATRK, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
BATRK has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.02%
Monthly Volatility:
12.04%
Yearly Volatility:
41.69%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.11%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.87% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.50%
Weekly VaR:
-12.30%
Monthly VaR:
-24.59%
How Much Can the price of
BATRK
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-85.19%
This translates to price declining to:
$21.61
This translates to price declining to:
$4.07
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BATRK is a 73.58% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 48.70% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -21.22% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BATRK
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.036
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.483
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.488
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.76
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
24.039
Beta is -95.31% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.34
Beta is -15.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.042
Alpha is -24.59% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -266% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BATRK
Equity cost of capital:
0.109
Equity cost of capital is -11.87% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
25.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
20.48%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
20.48%
WACC is 70.35% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.10
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
58.08
Annual revenue growth rate is 12.26% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.50
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-48.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -252.37% lower than the Entertainment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.03
-
-
Debt per share
$0.85
EBITDA per share
$1.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
BATRK
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
67.94
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.52
BATRK is 103.46% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.4
Price to sales ratio is 103.87% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
58.08
Price to free cash flow: 3.42
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-320.00%
Net income growth rate is 55.31% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 74.44%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
178.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
125.52%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
21.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.03
Interest coverage ratio is -93.23% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2674.63%
Annual debt growth is 593% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 70.53%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.417
Statistical significance of correlation:
BATRK has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.508
Stock price is -17.98% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.508
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
11.542
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.235
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BATRK
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.76%
Operating profit margin is 153.92% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
25.70%
Effective tax rate is 65.68% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
93.10%
Return on equity (ROE) is 80.29% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 275.02% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.11
Current ratio is -32.47% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 20.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
20.37%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
459.0K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
129.6K
Each employee generates -63% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
39.7K
Each employee generates -65% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
64.7K
Each employee generates -184742% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
185.9K
Each employee generates -184742% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BATRK
LIBERTY MEDIA CORPORATION (XNAS:BATRA)
RADIUS GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INC. (XNAS:RADI)
SCHOLASTIC CORPORATION (XNAS:SCHL)
GOGO INC. (XNAS:GOGO)
TABOOLA.COM LTD (XNAS:TBLA)
AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AVID)
Shenandoah Telecommunications Company (XNAS:SHEN)
THRYV HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:THRY)
THE E.W. SCRIPPS COMPANY (XNAS:SSP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Sell
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.12B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
-
560.00M
-
764.00M
1.32B
-
175.00M
317.00M
881.00M
523.00M
270.00M
463.00M
119.00M
270.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
260.00M
Differed Income Tax :
55.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
55.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 78000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
551.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 9000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
311.00M
-
311.00M
43.00M
-
45.00M
399.00M
758.00M
176.00M
148.00M
114.00M
-
68.00M
1.26B
-
1.66B
58.00M
156.00M
-
166.00M
- 19000.00K
361.00M
519.00M
439.00M
1.01B
-
1.37B
-
-
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.32B
290.00M
1.66B
-
675.00M
364.0M
97.00M
- 77000.00K
11.00M
- 1242000.00K
-
- 239000.00K
- 201000.00K
1.52B
- 164000.00K
- 2000.00K
396.00M
3.32B
2.92B
551.00M
- 111000.00K
440.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BATRK
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.74
$26.61
$28.62
$30.79
$33.12