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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Liberty Latin America Ltd. (XNAS:LILA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LILA
Name:
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
Sector:
- 42400.00K
Industry:
Telecom Services
CEO:
Mr. Balan Nair
Total Employees:
11,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -17.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD.(LILA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TELECOM SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.78
One Month Price Target:
$6.83
Six Month Price Target :
$7.06
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.73
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.28
This week:
$5.66
This month :
$4.54
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
221.48M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
28.37%
-18.87%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.11
$8.06
$4.45
$5.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.50
$5.84
$6.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LILA
Sharpe Ratio:
-2.29%
Comparison:
LILA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -335.14% lower than the industry
& is -200.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LILA
Daily returns:
-0.07%
Weekly returns:
-0.36%
Monthly returns:
-1.45%
Yearly returns:
17.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -198.10% below industry average
Classification:
LILA, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
LILA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.56%
Weekly Volatility:
7.97%
Monthly Volatility:
15.94%
Yearly Volatility:
55.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -26.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.39%
Weekly VaR:
-16.53%
Monthly VaR:
-33.07%
How Much Can the price of
LILA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.74
This translates to price declining to:
$1.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LILA is a 133.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 99.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 4.59% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LILA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.21
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.944
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.335
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.104
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.111
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.132
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.201
Beta is 0.83% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.819
Beta is 47.90% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.01%
Sustainable growth rate is -50.68% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.289
Alpha is -420.33% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1838% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LILA
Equity cost of capital:
0.114
Equity cost of capital is 30.67% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.98%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.77%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.77%
WACC is -49.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.51
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.54% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
65.52%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 164.56% higher than the Telecom Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.71
-
-
Debt per share
$67.51
EBITDA per share
$5.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
LILA
P/E Ratio:
17.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.89
P/E ratio is -18.67% lower than main peers & is -39.66% lower than the industry
-
LILA is -111.60% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.31
Price to sales ratio is -95.06% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.51
Price to free cash flow: 9.57
Price to free cash flow ratio is 40.38% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
0.21%
Net income growth rate is -99.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
659.26%
Net debt to equity ratio:
630.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
98.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
93.84%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 28.41% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.11
Interest coverage ratio is 34.56% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.49%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.35%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.621
Statistical significance of correlation:
LILA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.461
Stock price is 34.57% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.461
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
8.762
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.537
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LILA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.88%
Operating profit margin is -39.95% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
300%
Effective Tax Rate:
-61.40%
Effective tax rate is -290.23% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-23.26%
Return on equity (ROE) is 505.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-3.46%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1800.51% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
54.6x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -7.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-81.3
Cash conversion cycle is -214.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-5.69%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
408.2K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
94.2K
Each employee generates -73% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 44.3K
Each employee generates -143% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 3.6K
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates -106% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LILA
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
CARDLYTICS, INC. (XNAS:CDLX)
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
IHEARTMEDIA, INC. (XNAS:IHRT)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
DOUYU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:DOYU)
ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:ADV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.86B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.21B
3.65B
-
680.80M
857.80M
177.00M
2.06B
2.91B
-
530.70M
932.90M
1.12B
91.30M
- 527540.00K
- 301300.00K
185.00M
- 527540.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
214.10M
Differed Income Tax :
800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
30.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 215800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
122.30M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 24800.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
856.60M
-
856.60M
548.60M
-
618.60M
2.02B
4.14B
3.93B
1.59B
-
-
3.55B
13.21B
-
15.23B
349.20M
196.60M
-
160.70M
653.50M
1.36B
14.95B
-
15.79B
-
12.28B
-
- 2594300.00K
- 123300.0K
4.99B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.13B
2.27B
14.54B
-
15.15B
14.3B
-
- 164200.00K
- 189000.00K
- 52800.00K
-
- 55300.00K
-
29.90M
- 78200.00K
2.00M
- 142900.00K
931.30M
1.07B
122.30M
- 164700.00K
- 42400.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LILA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$7.35
$7.95
$8.60
$9.30
$10.05