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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lendingtree, Inc. (XNAS:TREE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
TREE
Name:
LENDINGTREE, INC. (XNAS:TREE)
Sector:
6.53M
Industry:
Financial Conglomerates
CEO:
Mr. Douglas Lebda
Total Employees:
1,407
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 188.26% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LENDINGTREE, INC.(TREE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.2
One Month Price Target:
$30.49
Six Month Price Target :
$31.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.33
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$27.61
This week:
$24.42
This month :
$18.64
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
396.49M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
12.79M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.65%
-18.17%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.23
$36.94
$18.17
$23.46
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.09
$25.17
$26.31
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
TREE
Sharpe Ratio:
-6.52%
Comparison:
TREE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1458.17% lower than the industry
& is -385.90% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
TREE
Daily returns:
-0.25%
Weekly returns:
-1.27%
Monthly returns:
-5.09%
Yearly returns:
1.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -6107.47% below industry average
Classification:
TREE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.01
Statistical test of Returns:
TREE has yielded a lower return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.04%
Weekly Volatility:
9.04%
Monthly Volatility:
18.09%
Yearly Volatility:
62.66%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.64%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -34.71% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.56%
Weekly VaR:
-19.14%
Monthly VaR:
-38.29%
How Much Can the price of
TREE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$19.08
This translates to price declining to:
$4.53
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
TREE is a 170.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 131.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 31.71% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
TREE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.334
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.887
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.615
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.185
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.742
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.036
Beta is 66.61% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.541
Beta is 11.99% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
3.21%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.761
Alpha is 499.93% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -4845% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
TREE
Equity cost of capital:
0.150
Equity cost of capital is 9.23% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.34%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.17%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.17%
WACC is -23.49% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$86.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -58.24% below industry average
EPS:
$2.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
56.62%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 11.56% higher than the Financial Conglomerates industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.94
-
-
Debt per share
$51.52
EBITDA per share
$11.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
TREE
P/E Ratio:
16.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.22
P/E ratio is -67.51% lower than main peers & is -42.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $83.32
TREE is -63.75% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.35
Price to sales ratio is -71.76% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.13
Price to free cash flow: 3.80
Price to free cash flow ratio is 15.01% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-32.15%
Net income growth rate is -104.93% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
193.27%
Net debt to equity ratio:
187.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
51.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -38.52% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.28
Interest coverage ratio is -86.75% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
4.40%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.508
Statistical significance of correlation:
TREE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.652
Stock price is -22.02% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.652
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.047
Kurtosis
3.777
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.222
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
TREE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.63%
Operating profit margin is -97.57% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
379%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.61%
Effective tax rate is -74.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -74.96% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -46.95% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.18
Current ratio is -60.06% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
21.7
Cash conversion cycle is 71.97% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
38.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
788.1K
Each employee generates -30% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
102.9K
Each employee generates -55% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.9K
Each employee generates -81% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.6K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
676.2K
Each employee generates -112% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
TREE
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (XNAS:GCMG)
WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:WSFS)
FIRST FINANCIAL BANCORP. (XNAS:FFBC)
BRP GROUP, INC. (XNAS:BRP)
FIRST MIDWEST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:FMBI)
INSTIL BIO, INC. (XNAS:TIL)
UP FINTECH HOLDING LIMITED (XNAS:TIGR)
BANCFIRST CORPORATION (XNAS:BANF)
GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC. (XNAS:GBDC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
58.96M
1.05B
54.45M
154.46M
935.14M
780.69M
58.39M
1.05B
-
44.16M
58.39M
144.83M
7.00M
39.24M
46.05M
3.04M
39.24M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
12.77M
Differed Income Tax :
326.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
15.08M
Change in Working Capital :
- 11786.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 17488.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.43M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.00M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
196.66M
-
196.66M
114.29M
-
27.12M
338.07M
145.49M
420.14M
77.85M
173.14M
127.82M
6.97M
951.41M
-
1.29B
9.91M
178.05M
-
8.21M
91.12M
287.28M
658.74M
341.00K
661.35M
-
948.62M
161.00K
- 538173.00K
-
878.86M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.11B
340.85M
1.29B
-
836.79M
640.1M
-
- 18465.00K
- 18465.00K
-
-
- 43009.00K
-
- 3089.00K
- 46098.00K
-
- 54564.00K
196.78M
251.34M
10.00M
- 3465.00K
6.53M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
TREE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$33.87
$109.21
$121.87
$136.00
$151.76