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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Leidos Holdings, Inc. (XNYS:LDOS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LDOS
Name:
LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LDOS)
Sector:
65.00M
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Roger Krone
Total Employees:
43,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -95.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LEIDOS HOLDINGS, INC.(LDOS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
93.71
One Month Price Target:
$94.11
Six Month Price Target :
$96.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$98.45
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$93.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$94.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$89.68
This week:
$84.7
This month :
$75.69
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.78B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
136.54M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.77%
-13.63%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$112.42
$103.86
$75.00
$83.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$101.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.25
$86.32
$88.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LDOS
Sharpe Ratio:
0.76%
Comparison:
LDOS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -57.92% lower than the industry
& is -66.54% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LDOS
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.50%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -58.58% below industry average
Classification:
LDOS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
LDOS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.11%
Weekly Volatility:
4.71%
Monthly Volatility:
9.42%
Yearly Volatility:
32.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.29% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.30%
Weekly VaR:
-9.62%
Monthly VaR:
-19.23%
How Much Can the price of
LDOS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-66.63%
This translates to price declining to:
$78.04
This translates to price declining to:
$31.27
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LDOS is a 35.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 16.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.58% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LDOS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.78
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.102
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.372
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.58
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.695
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.446
Beta is -47.89% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -37.68% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.02%
Sustainable growth rate is -91.25% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.023
Alpha is -177.54% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -148% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LDOS
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -27.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.60%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.60%
WACC is -30.62% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$101.92
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.19
Annual revenue growth rate is 140.20% above the industry average
EPS:
$5.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.19%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 23.39% higher than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.51
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.63%
Equity growth rate per share is -75.65% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$37.73
EBITDA per share
$10.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
LDOS
P/E Ratio:
18.23
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.84
P/E ratio is 85.30% higher than main peers & is -61.59% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $241.14
LDOS is -61.14% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.05
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.61
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.92
Price to sales ratio is -74.82% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.19
Price to free cash flow: 17.01
Price to free cash flow ratio is -31.27% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.80%
Net income growth rate is -99.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.05%
Dividend yeild: 1.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.36
Previous Dividend: $1.44
Expected next dividend best case: $0.37
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.53%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.36
2021-12-14--$0.36
2021-09-14--$0.36
2022-03-14--$0.36
2021-11-12--$0.36
2021-06-14--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -107.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
130.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
136.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
41.52%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -37.69% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.66
Interest coverage ratio is -81.67% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.73%
Annual debt growth is 13% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.52%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
LDOS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 3.63% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
8.244
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.501
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LDOS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
59%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.01%
Operating profit margin is -215.40% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
59%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.14%
Effective tax rate is -19.92% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
18.28%
Return on equity (ROE) is -67.50% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.55%
Return on assets (ROA) is 6400.04% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
1
Current ratio is -56.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
60.3
Cash conversion cycle is 60.77% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
323.6K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.5K
Each employee generates -25% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.8K
Each employee generates 98% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.5K
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
221.9K
Each employee generates -123% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LDOS
GODADDY INC. (XNYS:GDDY)
Wolfspeed, Inc. (XNYS:WOLF)
BLACK KNIGHT, INC. (XNYS:BKI)
FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION (XNYS:FICO)
ZENDESK, INC. (XNYS:ZEN)
SENTINELONE, INC. (XNYS:S)
SAMSARA INC. (XNYS:IOT)
ASANA, INC. (XNYS:ASAN)
TOAST, INC. (XNYS:TOST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/1/22
Revenue:
13.92B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
11.86B
2.06B
-
-
928.00M
-
-
928.00M
-
188.00M
333.00M
1.44B
1.12B
723.00M
927.00M
196.00M
723.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
85.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 61000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
16.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 128000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
68.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
93.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 28000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
7.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/1/22
2022
Q1
297.00M
-
297.00M
2.42B
279.00M
492.00M
3.49B
1.27B
6.74B
1.11B
-
-
418.00M
9.54B
-
13.03B
2.21B
556.00M
-
-
724.00M
3.49B
5.15B
195.00M
5.53B
-
9.02B
-
2.01B
20.0M
-
April 1, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
12.79B
3.96B
12.98B
-
5.71B
5.4B
-
-
- 21000.00K
- 27000.00K
12.00M
- 526000.00K
- 51000.00K
73.00M
- 519000.00K
-
- 447000.00K
428.00M
875.00M
93.00M
- 28000.00K
65.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LDOS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$98.68
$103.67
$108.92
$114.43
$120.22