_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Legacy Housing Corporation (XNAS:LEGH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LEGH
Name:
LEGACY HOUSING CORPORATION (XNAS:LEGH)
Sector:
-
Industry:
Residential Construction
CEO:
Mr. Kenneth E. Shipley
Total Employees:
880
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LEGACY HOUSING CORPORATION(LEGH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.8
One Month Price Target:
$16.89
Six Month Price Target :
$17.33
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.85
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.66
This week:
$14.25
This month :
$11.7
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
398.55M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.41M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.42%
-13.65%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$22.09
$19.66
$11.51
$13.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.87
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.35
$14.73
$15.25
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LEGH
Sharpe Ratio:
1.85%
Comparison:
LEGH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -25.86% lower than the industry
& is -18.72% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LEGH
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.41%
Yearly returns:
23.00%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -26.27% below industry average
Classification:
LEGH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
LEGH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.34%
Weekly Volatility:
7.46%
Monthly Volatility:
14.92%
Yearly Volatility:
51.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.23% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.78%
Weekly VaR:
-15.17%
Monthly VaR:
-30.33%
How Much Can the price of
LEGH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.43
This translates to price declining to:
$2.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LEGH is a 114.09% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 83.41% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.23% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LEGH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.036
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.812
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.519
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.716
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.338
Beta is -30.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.434
Beta is -34.96% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.91%
Sustainable growth rate is -39.60% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.074
Alpha is -26.01% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 473% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LEGH
Equity cost of capital:
0.095
Equity cost of capital is -26.47% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.31%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.94
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.03
-
EPS:
$1.93
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
17.82%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -6.17% lower than the Residential Construction industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.07
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
$2.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
LEGH
P/E Ratio:
8.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
26.46
P/E ratio is -69.12% lower than main peers & is -10.56% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.63
LEGH is -4.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.12
Price to sales ratio is 48.80% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.03
Price to free cash flow: 8.13
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
18.05%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
15.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-
Debt-to-asset ratio is -62.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
56.01
Interest coverage ratio is -39.54% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.302
Statistical significance of correlation:
LEGH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is -45.55% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.032
Kurtosis
12.076
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.32
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LEGH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
157%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
28.95%
Operating profit margin is 113.38% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
157%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.09%
Effective tax rate is -11.22% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.91%
Return on equity (ROE) is -40.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
13.37%
Return on assets (ROA) is -9.98% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.14
Current ratio is -72.36% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
84.2
Cash conversion cycle is 367.44% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
220.1K
Each employee generates -87% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
67.7K
Each employee generates -79% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
53.0K
Each employee generates -79% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LEGH
ROCKY BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:RCKY)
KIMBALL INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:KBAL)
Hooker Furnishings Corporation (XNAS:HOFT)
MOTORCAR PARTS OF AMERICA, INC. (XNAS:MPAA)
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CVGI)
YUNJI INC. (XNAS:YJ)
VOXX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:VOXX)
UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:UFPT)
DEL TACO RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNAS:TACO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
9/30/21
Revenue:
193.70M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
117.36M
76.34M
-
19.87M
20.27M
998.00K
-
20.27M
1.48M
1.06M
1.50M
59.54M
56.07M
46.67M
56.98M
10.31M
46.67M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
-
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
137.63M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LEGH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.94
$32.77
$34.83
$37.01
$39.33