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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Laureate Education, Inc. (XNAS:LAUR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LAUR
Name:
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LAUR)
Sector:
52.67M
Industry:
Education & Training Services
CEO:
Mr. Eilif Serck-Hanssen
Total Employees:
14,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 629.53% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC.(LAUR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND EDUCATION & TRAINING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.93
One Month Price Target:
$10.98
Six Month Price Target :
$11.22
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.09
This week:
$9.05
This month :
$7.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
164.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.96%
-41.69%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.82
$13.05
$7.04
$8.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.09
$9.38
$9.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LAUR
Sharpe Ratio:
0.14%
Comparison:
LAUR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -118.09% lower than the industry
& is -93.95% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LAUR
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.07%
Monthly returns:
0.28%
Yearly returns:
-3.84%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -187.58% below industry average
Classification:
LAUR, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.88
Statistical test of Returns:
LAUR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.74%
Weekly Volatility:
8.37%
Monthly Volatility:
16.74%
Yearly Volatility:
57.98%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.66%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.49% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.67%
Weekly VaR:
-17.16%
Monthly VaR:
-34.31%
How Much Can the price of
LAUR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-30%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.63
This translates to price declining to:
$1.64
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LAUR is a 142.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 107.47% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.34% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LAUR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.631
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.892
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.425
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.617
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.901
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.731
Beta is 9.84% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.833
Beta is -3.66% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.053
Alpha is -58.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -337% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LAUR
Equity cost of capital:
0.087
Equity cost of capital is -2.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.58%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.68%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.70%
WACC is 4.13% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$6.69
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.72
Annual revenue growth rate is -404.56% below industry average
EPS:
$1.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$2.87
EBITDA per share
$3.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
LAUR
P/E Ratio:
10.98
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.97
P/E ratio is -56.03% lower than main peers & is 3.67% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $17.90
LAUR is -38.93% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $30.54
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $14.50
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.63
Price to sales ratio is -34.28% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.72
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-38.73%
Net income growth rate is -17.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 133.58%
Previous Dividend: $0.58
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.58
Previous Dividend: $14.60
Expected next dividend best case: $15.51
Expected next dividend worst case: -$14.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $4.87
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -45.86%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 28/12/2021
Previous dividend record date: 14/12/2021
Previous dividend declaration date: 12/03/2021
Dividend History:
2021-12-13--$0.58
2021-10-05--$7.01
--$0.00
2021-11-01--$7.01
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is 105873.18% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
45.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
25.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.74
Interest coverage ratio is -73.43% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-62.44%
Annual debt growth is -683% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.362
Statistical significance of correlation:
LAUR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.406
Stock price is -10.93% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.406
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.043
Kurtosis
37.939
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.344
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LAUR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.24%
Operating profit margin is -39.85% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
-96.74%
Effective tax rate is -368.96% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
29.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 53.88% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
14.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 125.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.15
Current ratio is -66.10% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34.1
Cash conversion cycle is 95.65% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
78.7K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
39.2K
Each employee generates -28% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
22.4K
Each employee generates 8% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
3.8K
Each employee generates -65% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
122.8K
Each employee generates -65% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LAUR
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
INTER PARFUMS, INC. (XNAS:IPAR)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
HOSTESS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:TWNK)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�25%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.10B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
815.52M
286.04M
-
179.28M
179.28M
-
-
179.28M
5.64M
26.49M
129.02M
549.35M
90.78M
313.16M
- 83399.00K
80.68M
313.16M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
22.13M
Differed Income Tax :
4.41M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.76M
Change in Working Capital :
71.25M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
71.01M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1991.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
53.88M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1211.00K
Net Acquisitions:
9.19M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
293.84M
-
293.84M
156.14M
-
41.64M
491.61M
901.35M
567.06M
148.65M
-
47.78M
54.28M
1.72B
-
2.21B
45.70M
92.50M
32.35M
97.06M
191.27M
426.53M
472.98M
176.25M
737.60M
-
1.16B
921.00K
- 28688.00K
- 470617.0K
1.55B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
994.80M
1.05B
2.21B
-
565.48M
271.6M
-
- 44.00K
7.94M
- 58890.00K
-
- 102171.00K
-
56.92M
- 104138.00K
11.19M
- 31133.00K
314.44M
345.58M
53.88M
- 1211.00K
52.67M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LAUR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.58
$23.60
$24.87
$26.21
$27.63