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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (XNAS:LSCC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LSCC
Name:
LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION (XNAS:LSCC)
Sector:
36.08M
Industry:
Semiconductors
CEO:
Mr. James Anderson
Total Employees:
856
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -86.15% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LATTICE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION(LSCC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTORS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
52.25
One Month Price Target:
$52.61
Six Month Price Target :
$54.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$56.63
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$52.05
Price Upper limit ($) :
$52.66
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.64
This week:
$44.18
This month :
$36.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
137.32M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.48%
-12.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$68.96
$61.13
$35.54
$43.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.57
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.90
$45.90
$47.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LSCC
Sharpe Ratio:
5.59%
Comparison:
LSCC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 80.58% higher than the industry
& ratio is 145.31% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LSCC
Daily returns:
0.20%
Weekly returns:
1.01%
Monthly returns:
4.05%
Yearly returns:
31.95%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 51.98% above industry average
Classification:
LSCC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.09
Statistical test of Returns:
LSCC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.46%
Weekly Volatility:
7.74%
Monthly Volatility:
15.47%
Yearly Volatility:
53.60%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.75% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.90%
Weekly VaR:
-15.44%
Monthly VaR:
-30.87%
How Much Can the price of
LSCC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$39.20
This translates to price declining to:
$7.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LSCC is a 117.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.51% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LSCC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.979
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.384
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.916
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.457
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.804
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.403
Beta is -11.17% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.41
Beta is -11.62% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
21.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -22.99% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.369
Alpha is 92.65% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2347% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LSCC
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is -8.76% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.54%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.22%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.22%
WACC is -12.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.01
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
17.02
Annual revenue growth rate is -113.81% below industry average
EPS:
$0.80
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.63%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -48.93% lower than the Semiconductors industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.22
-
-
Debt per share
$1.12
EBITDA per share
$1.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
LSCC
P/E Ratio:
54.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
52.34
P/E ratio is 3.70% higher than main peers & is 30.86% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $33.18
LSCC is 57.47% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
13.04
Price to sales ratio is 60.46% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
17.02
Price to free cash flow: 42.71
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.18% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-160.93%
Net income growth rate is 180.95% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
36.58%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.39%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.53%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -45.13% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
54.98
Interest coverage ratio is 67.69% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
28.12%
Annual debt growth is -69% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.76%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.699
Statistical significance of correlation:
LSCC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.627
Stock price is 11.37% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.627
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.048
Kurtosis
1.57
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.228
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LSCC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.44%
Operating profit margin is -8.89% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
255%
Effective Tax Rate:
1.48%
Effective tax rate is -90.18% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
26.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -6.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
15.70%
Return on assets (ROA) is 19.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.02
Current ratio is -25.63% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.8
Cash conversion cycle is -58.73% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
12.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
642.7K
Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
175.2K
Each employee generates -25% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
132.2K
Each employee generates -18% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
42.1K
Each employee generates 52% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
492.7K
Each employee generates 52% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 13.57%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4.16% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LSCC
Amdocs Limited (XNAS:DOX)
MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC. (XNAS:MKSI)
dLocal Ltd (XNAS:DLO)
FIVE9, INC. (XNAS:FIVN)
DROPBOX, INC. (XNAS:DBX)
FIRST SOLAR, INC. (XNAS:FSLR)
ASPEN TECHNOLOGY, INC. (XNAS:AZPN)
Nuvei Corp (XNAS:NVEI)
SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:SYNA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
550.13M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
198.27M
351.86M
119.01M
-
109.30M
-
3.18M
231.48M
-
2.73M
32.36M
149.98M
117.93M
113.19M
114.89M
1.70M
113.19M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
8.88M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
14.13M
Change in Working Capital :
- 15917.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3196.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
44.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
43.21M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
122.99M
-
122.99M
83.06M
71.77M
21.37M
299.19M
62.00M
315.36M
28.35M
-
-
16.03M
421.74M
-
720.93M
38.49M
23.06M
-
14.46M
23.05M
99.06M
154.20M
46.11M
200.31M
-
299.37M
1.38M
- 253898.00K
- 1704.0K
675.78M
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
429.75M
421.56M
720.93M
-
177.26M
54.3M
-
- 7130.00K
- 7130.00K
- 4375.00K
601.00K
- 15000.00K
-
- 25629.00K
- 44403.00K
- 253.00K
- 8581.00K
122.99M
131.57M
43.21M
- 7130.00K
36.08M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LSCC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$62.39
$67.62
$73.29
$79.42
$86.08