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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:LNTH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LNTH
Name:
LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LNTH)
Sector:
7.07M
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Ms. Mary Heino
Total Employees:
612
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 89.18% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LANTHEUS HOLDINGS, INC.(LNTH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
78.48
One Month Price Target:
$78.82
Six Month Price Target :
$80.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$82.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$78.19
Price Upper limit ($) :
$79.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$72.73
This week:
$65.62
This month :
$52.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.46B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
68.74M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.12%
-22.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$105.11
$92.54
$51.85
$64.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$88.44
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.76
$68.48
$71.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LNTH
Sharpe Ratio:
6.86%
Comparison:
LNTH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 172.25% higher than the industry
& ratio is 200.77% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LNTH
Daily returns:
0.26%
Weekly returns:
1.31%
Monthly returns:
5.24%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 125.37% above industry average
Classification:
LNTH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.39
Statistical test of Returns:
LNTH has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.69%
Weekly Volatility:
8.26%
Monthly Volatility:
16.52%
Yearly Volatility:
57.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -39.89% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.33%
Weekly VaR:
-16.38%
Monthly VaR:
-32.76%
How Much Can the price of
LNTH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$58.11
This translates to price declining to:
$11.77
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LNTH is a 131.25% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 98.11% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -4.30% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LNTH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.758
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.072
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.569
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.942
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.812
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.803
Beta is -3.07% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -34.14% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.544
Alpha is 226.46% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3465% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LNTH
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is -24.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.21%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.80%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.00%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.00%
WACC is -13.82% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$7.88
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
10.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -125.25% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.64
-
-
Debt per share
$2.32
EBITDA per share
$0.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
LNTH
P/E Ratio:
182.83
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
70.58
P/E ratio is 159.04% higher than main peers & is 391.79% higher than the industry
-
LNTH is -470.35% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.96
Price to sales ratio is 4.82% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
10.46
Price to free cash flow: 123.53
Price to free cash flow ratio is 75.36% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-199.46%
Net income growth rate is -12.73% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
30.89%
Net debt to equity ratio:
12.97%
Debt to assets ratio:
17.08%
Net debt to assets ratio:
7.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -64.85% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.21
Interest coverage ratio is -111.45% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.61%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.477
Statistical significance of correlation:
LNTH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is -2.29% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.074
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.158
Kurtosis
21.409
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.535
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LNTH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-3.24%
Operating profit margin is -97.12% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
194%
Effective Tax Rate:
-18.57%
Effective tax rate is -196.78% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7.24%
Return on equity (ROE) is -134.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.00%
Return on assets (ROA) is -98.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.83
Current ratio is -63.22% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
58.1
Cash conversion cycle is 16.94% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 26.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-15.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
884.9K
Each employee generates 138% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
34.3K
Each employee generates 14% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 61.0K
Each employee generates -481% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
11.6K
Each employee generates -631% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
994.1K
Each employee generates -631% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 37.14%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2162.94% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
LNTH
SOMALOGIC, INC (XNAS:SLGC)
MODIVCARE INC. (XNAS:MODV)
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:GBT)
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AGIO)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
LUMINEX RESOURCES CORP. (OTCM:LUMIF)
ALLOGENE THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ALLO)
CASSAVA SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:SAVA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
541.58M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
265.84M
275.74M
46.81M
171.85M
246.45M
74.60M
-
293.26M
36.00K
6.54M
45.95M
21.02M
- 17522.00K
- 37325.00K
- 31479.00K
5.85M
- 37325.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.79M
Differed Income Tax :
14.56M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.62M
Change in Working Capital :
- 86957.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 85155.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
22.29M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.26M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
105.36M
-
105.36M
172.28M
34.25M
12.86M
324.75M
116.96M
61.19M
340.20M
-
47.87M
42.20M
608.42M
-
933.17M
22.38M
12.88M
-
-
142.40M
177.66M
159.37M
80.29M
239.66M
-
417.32M
686.00K
- 178263.00K
1.9M
691.52M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
559.10M
515.85M
933.17M
-
172.25M
66.9M
-
- 1390.00K
- 1390.00K
- 2609.00K
577.00K
-
-
- 147.00K
- 2179.00K
151.00K
6.85M
107.50M
100.65M
10.26M
- 3190.00K
7.07M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LNTH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.99
$38.04
$40.03
$42.12
$44.32