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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Landstar System, Inc. (XNAS:LSTR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LSTR
Name:
LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC. (XNAS:LSTR)
Sector:
94.97M
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. James Gattoni
Total Employees:
1,399
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 776.46% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC.(LSTR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
145.22
One Month Price Target:
$145.98
Six Month Price Target :
$149.79
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$154.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$144.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$145.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$139.24
This week:
$131.86
This month :
$118.49
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.23B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
36.43M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.%
-10.4%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$172.94
$160.15
$117.50
$130.29
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$155.99
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$153.26
$134.42
$137.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LSTR
Sharpe Ratio:
2.42%
Comparison:
LSTR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -22.90% lower than the industry
& ratio is 6.05% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LSTR
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.16%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -34.42% below industry average
Classification:
LSTR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
LSTR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.03%
Weekly Volatility:
4.54%
Monthly Volatility:
9.09%
Yearly Volatility:
31.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.38%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 17.03% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.12%
Weekly VaR:
-9.20%
Monthly VaR:
-18.41%
How Much Can the price of
LSTR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$122.55
This translates to price declining to:
$52.63
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LSTR is a 29.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 11.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.08% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LSTR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.94
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.639
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.904
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.833
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.42
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.683
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.495
Beta is -37.42% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is -12.36% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
33.34%
Sustainable growth rate is 20.81% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.044
Alpha is -59.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 277% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LSTR
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -8.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.51%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.51%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.19%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.19%
WACC is 7.76% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$198.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.18
Annual revenue growth rate is -42.42% below industry average
EPS:
$11.31
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
20.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -46.43% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.54
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 37.87%
Equity growth rate per share is 501.05% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$3.77
EBITDA per share
$16.55
Valuation Analysis Today of
LSTR
P/E Ratio:
12.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
59.31
P/E ratio is -79.52% lower than main peers & is -24.29% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $181.43
LSTR is -19.96% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.73
Price to sales ratio is -53.85% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.18
Price to free cash flow: 19.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
63.64%
Net income growth rate is -70.61% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 19.74%
Dividend yeild: 1.89%
Previous Dividend: $0.25
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.25
Previous Dividend: $2.75
Expected next dividend best case: $0.85
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.35
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.55
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 127.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 25/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 27/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.25
2022-01-06--$2.00
2021-08-06--$0.25
2022-02-11--$0.25
2021-11-08--$0.25
2021-05-05--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -5032.48% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.04%
Net debt to equity ratio:
14.30%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.71%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
148.57
Interest coverage ratio is 306.64% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
30.06%
Annual debt growth is -37% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.49%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.451
Statistical significance of correlation:
LSTR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is -18.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.03
Kurtosis
8.156
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.441
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LSTR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.83%
Operating profit margin is 59.76% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
52%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.53%
Effective tax rate is 0.60% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
50.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is 55.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
20.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is -408.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.62
Current ratio is -22.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-5971.7
Cash conversion cycle is -1141.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
5.2M
Each employee generates 416% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
430.8K
Each employee generates 543% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
306.7K
Each employee generates 1036% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
67.9K
Each employee generates 526% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
362.6K
Each employee generates 526% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LSTR
TETRA TECH, INC. (XNAS:TTEK)
WILLSCOT MOBILE MINI HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:WSC)
STERICYCLE, INC. (XNAS:SRCL)
JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION (XNAS:JBLU)
ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD (XNAS:ESLT)
CHART INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:GTLS)
TuSimple Holdings Inc (XNAS:TSP)
AVIS BUDGET GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CAR)
LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LECO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�42%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/26/22
Revenue:
7.22B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.27B
945.68M
-
343.31M
343.31M
-
40.03M
383.34M
-
4.06M
37.51M
602.74M
565.23M
429.12M
561.18M
132.05M
429.12M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.76M
Differed Income Tax :
1.32M
Stock Based Compensation :
2.00M
Change in Working Capital :
75.33M
Accounts Receivables:
2.63M
Other Working Capital:
588.25M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 122280.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
94.97M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 13428.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/26/22
2022
Q1
146.03M
35.68M
181.70M
1.35B
-
10.44M
1.54B
307.04M
40.95M
-
-
-
159.33M
507.31M
-
2.05B
626.34M
131.20M
50.28M
-
192.72M
950.25M
137.29M
51.13M
239.41M
-
1.19B
684.00K
2.43B
- 9315.0K
-
March 26, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
6.66B
856.15M
2.05B
-
268.49M
122.5M
12.42M
- 2966.00K
- 3974.00K
- 9532.00K
-
- 109332.00K
- 84711.00K
39.61M
- 163965.00K
815.00K
- 72159.00K
147.41M
219.57M
94.97M
-
94.97M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LSTR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$155.12
$361.04
$383.74
$407.87
$433.51