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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lands' End, Inc. (XNAS:LE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LE
Name:
LANDS' END, INC. (XNAS:LE)
Sector:
- 43657.00K
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Jerome Griffith
Total Employees:
5,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -417.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LANDS' END, INC.(LE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.81
One Month Price Target:
$10.96
Six Month Price Target :
$11.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.93
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.51
This week:
$7.91
This month :
$5.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
340.75M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
33.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
60.22%
-27.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$16.82
$14.06
$4.80
$7.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$13.17
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.58
$8.45
$9.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.58%
Comparison:
LE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -44.88% lower than the industry
& is -30.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LE
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.51%
Monthly returns:
2.03%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.18% below industry average
Classification:
LE, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.86
Statistical test of Returns:
LE has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.88%
Weekly Volatility:
13.15%
Monthly Volatility:
26.31%
Yearly Volatility:
91.14%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -25.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.98%
Weekly VaR:
-26.79%
Monthly VaR:
-53.58%
How Much Can the price of
LE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.81
This translates to price declining to:
$1.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LE is a 278.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 223.96% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 41.63% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.209
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.709
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.491
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.976
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.573
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.412
Beta is 71.27% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 69.13% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.09%
Sustainable growth rate is -63.59% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.047
Alpha is -78.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 297% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LE
Equity cost of capital:
0.197
Equity cost of capital is 52.31% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.87%
After-tax cost of debt:
7.01%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
7.01%
WACC is 110.09% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$48.89
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.97
Annual revenue growth rate is -100.17% below industry average
EPS:
$0.84
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
40.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 13.87% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$10.86
EBITDA per share
$3.47
Valuation Analysis Today of
LE
P/E Ratio:
36.72
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
28.76
P/E ratio is 27.67% higher than main peers & is 70.73% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $18.07
LE is -40.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.22
Price to sales ratio is -94.56% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.97
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -73.42% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-62.15%
Net income growth rate is -86.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
97.12%
Net debt to equity ratio:
92.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
34.15%
Net debt to assets ratio:
32.49%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.42
Interest coverage ratio is -86.19% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-15.99%
Annual debt growth is -123% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.12%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.357
Statistical significance of correlation:
LE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -24.83% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.035
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.119
Kurtosis
17.899
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.566
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
169%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.44%
Operating profit margin is -31.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
169%
Effective Tax Rate:
36.01%
Effective tax rate is 59.68% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.66%
Return on equity (ROE) is 438.57% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -71.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.89
Current ratio is 0.37% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-16.5
Cash conversion cycle is -125.53% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
323.8K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
23.0K
Each employee generates -91% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.7K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
108.4K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LE
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
OneWater Marine Inc (XNAS:ONEW)
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
LIQUIDITY SERVICES, INC. (XNAS:LQDT)
BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (XNAS:BLBD)
GAN LIMITED (XNAS:GAN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/29/22
Revenue:
1.62B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
946.09M
672.90M
-
-
274.06M
-
145.15M
419.21M
-
33.55M
38.85M
114.76M
71.82M
28.36M
38.88M
14.00M
28.36M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
9.79M
Differed Income Tax :
34.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.97M
Change in Working Capital :
- 55684.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 14290.00K
Other Working Capital:
258.44M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 390.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 36879.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 6778.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/30/21
2022
Q1
36.18M
-
36.18M
41.35M
394.29M
38.85M
510.67M
174.25M
106.70M
257.00M
-
-
4.06M
542.01M
-
1.05B
105.60M
18.71M
-
-
145.21M
269.52M
359.48M
6.09M
413.01M
-
682.52M
330.00K
13.87M
- 10910.0K
366.87M
October 29, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
1.19B
370.15M
1.05B
-
378.20M
342.0M
-
-
- 6778.00K
- 23438.00K
-
-
-
64.76M
41.32M
922.00K
- 1416.00K
39.91M
41.33M
- 36879.00K
- 6778.00K
- 43657.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.63
$31.53
$36.65
$42.61
$49.54