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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lancaster Colony Corporation (XNAS:LANC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LANC
Name:
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
Sector:
- 31399.00K
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. David Ciesinski
Total Employees:
3,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -126.88% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION(LANC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
168.25
One Month Price Target:
$168.29
Six Month Price Target :
$168.51
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$168.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$167.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$168.89
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$161.19
This week:
$152.47
This month :
$136.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.66B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.52M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.2%
-16.68%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$201.01
$186.00
$135.49
$150.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$181.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$177.91
$155.34
$158.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LANC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.06%
Comparison:
LANC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -19.43% lower than the industry
& is -53.67% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LANC
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -12.83% below industry average
Classification:
LANC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
LANC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.06%
Weekly Volatility:
4.60%
Monthly Volatility:
9.20%
Yearly Volatility:
31.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.62%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.97% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.20%
Weekly VaR:
-9.38%
Monthly VaR:
-18.76%
How Much Can the price of
LANC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.00%
This translates to price declining to:
$140.92
This translates to price declining to:
$58.89
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LANC is a 32.43% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 13.45% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -10.04% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LANC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.05
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.389
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.551
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.045
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.406
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.652
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.897
Beta is -94.89% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -92.17% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
4.95%
Sustainable growth rate is -45.33% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.039
Alpha is 208.65% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 247% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LANC
Equity cost of capital:
0.035
Equity cost of capital is -51.64% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.41%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$58.49
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.45
Annual revenue growth rate is -44.68% below industry average
EPS:
$3.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-5.94%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -132.95% lower than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.55%
Equity growth rate per share is 426.29% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.67
EBITDA per share
$6.02
Valuation Analysis Today of
LANC
P/E Ratio:
51.78
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
84.79
P/E ratio is -38.94% lower than main peers & is 34.00% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $129.44
LANC is 29.98% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $211.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $153.21
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.88
Price to sales ratio is 24.05% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.45
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
4.91%
Net income growth rate is -54.35% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 22.41%
Dividend yeild: 1.87%
Previous Dividend: $0.80
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.80
Previous Dividend: $3.15
Expected next dividend best case: $0.83
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.77
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.75
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.38%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/09/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-08--$0.80
2021-12-03--$0.80
2021-06-08--$0.75
2022-03-08--$0.80
2021-09-09--$0.75
2021-03-08--$0.75
Dividend growth rate is -480.67% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
2.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-13.14%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-10.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.95% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
34.93%
Annual debt growth is -87% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.436
Statistical significance of correlation:
LANC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is 1.60% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
14.767
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.026
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LANC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
88%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.40%
Operating profit margin is 53.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
88%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.68%
Effective tax rate is -44.37% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.74% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.27%
Return on assets (ROA) is 85.28% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.28
Current ratio is -16.89% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-3.1
Cash conversion cycle is -106.23% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.46%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
503.0K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
51.8K
Each employee generates -54% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
28.8K
Each employee generates -45% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 9.8K
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
220.4K
Each employee generates 164% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LANC
HELEN OF TROY LIMITED (XNAS:HELE)
OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:OLLI)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (XNAS:GO)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.61B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.26B
353.98M
-
51.86M
213.68M
-
-
213.68M
-
-
46.36M
165.69M
119.12M
92.27M
119.33M
27.06M
92.27M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.26M
Differed Income Tax :
800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.27M
Change in Working Capital :
- 46026.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 137.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1172.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 30227.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
130.09M
-
130.09M
108.37M
158.37M
13.03M
409.86M
416.19M
208.37M
57.63M
-
-
23.09M
705.28M
-
1.12B
127.75M
-
-
-
52.03M
179.79M
18.35M
27.50M
85.29M
-
265.08M
130.83M
1.49B
- 8211.0K
- 764766.00K
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.47B
850.06M
1.12B
-
18.35M
- 111736.0K
-
134.00K
- 30093.00K
-
-
- 5329.00K
- 20675.00K
- 697.00K
- 26701.00K
-
- 57966.00K
130.09M
188.06M
- 1172.00K
- 30227.00K
- 31399.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LANC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$213.06
$213.72
$214.38
$215.04
$215.70