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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lamar Advertising Company (XNAS:LAMR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LAMR
Name:
LAMAR ADVERTISING COMPANY (XNAS:LAMR)
Sector:
73.28M
Industry:
REIT�Specialty
CEO:
Mr. Sean Reilly
Total Employees:
3,350
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 17.85% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LAMAR ADVERTISING COMPANY(LAMR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�SPECIALTY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
92.49
One Month Price Target:
$93.22
Six Month Price Target :
$96.84
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$101.19
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$92.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$93.09
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$86.07
This week:
$78.14
This month :
$63.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.44B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
101.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.29%
-24.88%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$122.28
$108.60
$62.70
$76.38
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$104.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$101.22
$80.80
$83.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LAMR
Sharpe Ratio:
1.71%
Comparison:
LAMR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -13.35% lower than the industry
& is -24.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LAMR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.34%
Yearly returns:
14.77%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 9.16% above industry average
Classification:
LAMR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.37
Statistical test of Returns:
LAMR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.41%
Weekly Volatility:
7.63%
Monthly Volatility:
15.26%
Yearly Volatility:
52.86%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.82%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.94%
Weekly VaR:
-15.52%
Monthly VaR:
-31.04%
How Much Can the price of
LAMR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$67.81
This translates to price declining to:
$13.87
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LAMR is a 119.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 87.67% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 21.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LAMR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.40
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.816
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.153
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.335
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.847
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.275
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.125
Beta is 24.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.954
Beta is 46.85% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.034
Alpha is -33.56% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 215% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LAMR
Equity cost of capital:
0.127
Equity cost of capital is 31.61% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.43%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.92%
WACC is -16.22% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$18.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.67
Annual revenue growth rate is -57.36% below industry average
EPS:
$4.35
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.07%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -96.04% lower than the REIT�Specialty industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.03
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -10.71%
Equity growth rate per share is -186.27% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$39.19
EBITDA per share
$8.24
Valuation Analysis Today of
LAMR
P/E Ratio:
20.57
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.54
P/E ratio is -76.76% lower than main peers & is -75.25% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $361.56
LAMR is -74.42% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $117.85
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $89.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.03
Price to sales ratio is -30.95% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.67
Price to free cash flow: 15.34
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
24.16%
Net income growth rate is -90.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 25.27%
Dividend yeild: 5.19%
Previous Dividend: $1.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.20
Previous Dividend: $4.80
Expected next dividend best case: $1.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.93
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.89
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 6.99%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 19/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-16--$1.20
2021-12-17--$0.50
2021-06-18--$0.75
2022-03-18--$1.10
2021-09-17--$1.00
2021-03-19--$0.75
Dividend growth rate is -86.43% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
325.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
343.67%
Debt to assets ratio:
65.30%
Net debt to assets ratio:
69.02%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -15.18% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.97
Interest coverage ratio is 51.04% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.18%
Annual debt growth is 6% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.25%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.572
Statistical significance of correlation:
LAMR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -5.27% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.009
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.019
Kurtosis
18.693
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.465
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LAMR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
271%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
29.59%
Operating profit margin is 63.71% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
271%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.37%
Effective tax rate is -77.79% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
36.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is 97.08% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 41.90% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
0.71
Current ratio is -59.49% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
61.9
Cash conversion cycle is 37.70% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 17.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
557.6K
Each employee generates -93% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
249.8K
Each employee generates -96% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
131.9K
Each employee generates -96% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
21.9K
Each employee generates -98% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.7M
Each employee generates -98% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LAMR
CYRUSONE INC. (XNAS:CONE)
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI)
REGENCY CENTERS CORPORATION (XNAS:REG)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCN)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNC)
FirstService Corp (XNAS:FSV)
BROOKFIEL PPTY PRT SRS 2 CM CL A UNT (XNAS:BPYPO)
OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:OPEN)
BROOKFIELD PROPERTY PARTNERS L.P. (XNAS:BPYPN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.87B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
603.06M
1.26B
-
435.22M
435.22M
-
279.17M
714.39M
804.00K
105.02M
279.17M
836.83M
552.72M
441.91M
452.64M
10.73M
441.91M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
68.63M
Differed Income Tax :
- 342.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.78M
Change in Working Capital :
- 60301.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
123.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
102.04M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 55293.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
115.88M
-
115.88M
255.64M
-
36.13M
407.65M
2.59B
1.94B
1.06B
-
-
94.18M
5.69B
-
6.09B
13.01M
342.44M
-
131.35M
84.87M
571.67M
3.98B
312.79M
4.30B
-
4.87B
102.00K
- 753957.00K
1.2M
1.98B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.32B
1.22B
6.09B
-
4.32B
4.2B
-
- 28049.00K
- 83342.00K
- 50425.00K
4.90M
- 10446.00K
- 111693.00K
164.95M
- 2713.00K
107.00K
16.09M
115.88M
99.79M
102.04M
- 28759.00K
73.28M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LAMR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$101.70
$200.40
$219.26
$239.90
$262.48