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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Lakeland Financial Corporation (XNAS:LKFN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LKFN
Name:
LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:LKFN)
Sector:
46.61M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Findlay
Total Employees:
567
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -143.66% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LAKELAND FINANCIAL CORPORATION(LKFN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
75.27
One Month Price Target:
$75.59
Six Month Price Target :
$77.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.07
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$75.02
Price Upper limit ($) :
$75.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$71.43
This week:
$66.69
This month :
$58.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.90B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
25.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
21.59%
-14.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.05
$84.80
$57.49
$65.74
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.36
$68.40
$70.18
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LKFN
Sharpe Ratio:
3.53%
Comparison:
LKFN, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 187.54% higher than the industry
& ratio is 54.97% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LKFN
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.49%
Monthly returns:
1.96%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 115.95% above industry average
Classification:
LKFN, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.8
Statistical test of Returns:
LKFN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.53%
Weekly Volatility:
5.65%
Monthly Volatility:
11.31%
Yearly Volatility:
39.18%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.35%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.01% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.10%
Weekly VaR:
-11.39%
Monthly VaR:
-22.79%
How Much Can the price of
LKFN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-78.94%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.95
This translates to price declining to:
$15.85
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LKFN is a 60.84% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.47% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LKFN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.75
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.626
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.885
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.683
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.454
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.749
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.796
Beta is -5.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -21.94% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.77%
Sustainable growth rate is -3.97% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.153
Alpha is 1215.28% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 971% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LKFN
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -14.85% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.54%
Before-tax cost of debt:
18.65%
After-tax cost of debt:
14.73%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
14.73%
WACC is -27.10% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.27
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -49.96% below industry average
EPS:
$3.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.23%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -73.15% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.12
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 36.01%
Equity growth rate per share is -7.01% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.96
EBITDA per share
$5.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
LKFN
P/E Ratio:
19.77
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.75
P/E ratio is 43.80% higher than main peers & is 59.35% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $46.66
LKFN is 61.33% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $49.37
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $29.33
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
9.1
Price to sales ratio is 112.77% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.13
Price to free cash flow: 14.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -21.28% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
18.18%
Net income growth rate is -66.99% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.58%
Dividend yeild: 1.97%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.43
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 25/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 07/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 25/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 04/12/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-22--$0.40
2021-10-22--$0.34
2021-04-22--$0.34
2022-01-24--$0.40
2021-07-22--$0.34
2021-01-22--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -86.84% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-65.68%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-6.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.31% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.01
Interest coverage ratio is 1107.25% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.28%
Annual debt growth is -3978% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.442
Statistical significance of correlation:
LKFN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -11.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
10.802
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.905
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LKFN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
18.04%
Effective tax rate is -16.27% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
15.83%
Return on equity (ROE) is 32.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
369.8K
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
246.8K
Each employee generates 9% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
170.0K
Each employee generates 20% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
82.2K
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.8M
Each employee generates -1% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LKFN
Pathward Financial, Inc. (XNAS:CASH)
ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP (XNAS:EFSC)
NBT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:NBTB)
PALOMAR HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:PLMR)
EAGLE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EGBN)
VERITEX HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:VBTX)
LEXINFINTECH HOLDINGS LTD. (XNAS:LX)
NORTHWEST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:NWBI)
PRA GROUP, INC. (XNAS:PRAA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
209.70M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
64.08M
64.08M
-
-
-
193.28M
13.99M
8.35M
139.95M
-
96.39M
117.61M
21.22M
96.39M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.74M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.26M
Change in Working Capital :
13.69M
Accounts Receivables:
- 2822.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
6.37M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
47.70M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1091.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 292127.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
475.02M
1.52B
2.00B
19.45M
-
-
-
58.88M
4.97M
-
1.52B
-
-
1.59B
8.16B
6.57B
2.30M
-
-
-
-
-
75.00M
-
75.00M
6.04B
5.96B
121.14M
596.58M
- 93687.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
609.01M
6.57B
3.05B
75.00M
- 400024.0K
29.65M
- 65648.00K
- 329219.00K
-
221.00K
- 212.00K
- 10198.00K
83.49M
73.30M
-
- 208216.00K
475.02M
683.24M
47.70M
- 1091.00K
46.61M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LKFN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$81.95
$86.09
$90.44
$95.01
$99.82