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Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:LBAI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today

Primary Facts

LBAI

Name:

LAKELAND BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:LBAI)

Sector:

28.40M

Industry:

Banks�Regional

CEO:

Mr. Thomas Shara

Total Employees:

681

Our Technological Advancement Rating

Our Rating:

D

Technological advancement compared to industry is -64.82% lower

ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF LAKELAND BANCORP, INC.(LBAI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022

Primary Targets/Price Insights

Previous Close ($) :

16.17

One Month Price Target:

$16.25

Six Month Price Target :

$16.62

Likely Price in One Year's Time:

Ticker:

$17.07

Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
 

$16.1

Price Upper limit ($) :

$16.26

Price Lower limit ($) :

Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)

Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:

Today:

$15.21

                                                               This week:

$14.03

                                                        This month :

$11.9

Other Primary facts

Market Cap:

1.04B

Market Cap Classification:

Small Cap

Number of Shares

IPO Date:

64.80M

Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
 

Highest Daily Appreciation:

21.26%

-23.75%

Worst Daily Decline:

Our Options Trading Entry Points

Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time

Low risk (<2%) entry points

Buy Call:

Sell Call:

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$20.60

$18.58

$11.74

$13.76

Medium risk (<10%) entry points

Buy Call

Sell Call

$17.91

Buy Put:

Sell Put:

$17.48

$14.42

$14.86

These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.

Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of

LBAI

Sharpe Ratio:

0.97%

Comparison:

LBAI, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns

Sharpe ratio is -20.92% lower than the industry

& is -57.38% lower than the market/S&P 500 average

Average Returns/Yield of

LBAI

Daily returns:

0.04%

Weekly returns:

0.18%

Monthly returns:

0.74%

Yearly returns:

10.91%

Comparison of returns:

Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -18.68% below industry average

Classification:

LBAI, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns

Results of T-Test of Returns:

0.64

Statistical test of Returns:

LBAI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market

SHARPE ratio explained.png

Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)

Daily Volatility:

2.89%

Weekly Volatility:

6.47%

Monthly Volatility:

12.95%

Yearly Volatility:

44.85%

Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation) 

Average Volatility of this Week:

1.13%

Volatility in last five trading days has been -61.13% below long-term volatility

Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)

Daily VaR:

-5.91%

Weekly VaR:

-13.21%

Monthly VaR:

-26.42%

How Much Can the price of

LBAI

Decline in a Recession?

Likely price decline in a recession: 

Base case (decline):

-23%

Worst case (decline):

-91.53%

This translates to price declining to:

$12.46

This translates to price declining to:

$1.37

Severe Crash Probability

Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)

What is Value at Risk (VaR)?

VaR explained figure

Risk Fundamentals

LBAI is a 86.49% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 59.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)

Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.34% above industry average

Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks

Beta Examination of

LBAI

Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.83

Expected beta in 1 year's time:

0.624

Expected beta in 3 year's time:

0.882

Unlevered (debt free) Beta:

0.709

Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):

0.569

Beta in relation to all global stocks::

0.977

Beta Comparison & Analysis

Beta of competitors/peers::

1.023

Beta is -18.91% lower than peers

Average Industry Beta: 

0.964

Beta is -13.88% below industry average

Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis

Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:

8.45%

Sustainable growth rate is -7.48% below industry average

Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis 

Alpha provided:

0.000

Alpha is -96.71% below industry average alpha yield

Alpha is 2% compared to market & is healthy

Analysis of Cost of Capital of

LBAI

Equity cost of capital:

0.088

Equity cost of capital is -9.40% below industry mean WACC

Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:  

7.55%

Before-tax cost of debt:

8.65%

After-tax cost of debt:

6.83%

Overall debt rating:

Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):

6.83%

WACC is -23.52% below industry mean WACC

Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis

Revenue per share:

$4.17

Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):

0.96

Annual revenue growth rate is -14.97% below industry average

EPS:

$1.64

Expected Annual growth rate of  EPS (3Y):

10.00%

Expected future EPS growth rate is -16.84% lower than the Banks�Regional industry

Free cash flow (FCF) per share:

$1.37

Balance sheet equity growth per share: 19.95%

Equity growth rate per share is -48.49% lower than the industry

Debt per share

$3.82

EBITDA per share

$2.28

Valuation Analysis Today of

LBAI

P/E Ratio:

10.45

P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:

11.11

P/E ratio is -5.93% lower than main peers & is -15.77% lower than the industry

Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $20.35

LBAI is -20.54% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio

Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.83

Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.66

P/S (Price to Sales ratio):

3.88

Price to sales ratio is -9.24% below the industry mean

P/B (Price to book value ratio):

0.96

Price to free cash flow: 11.77

Price to free cash flow ratio is -53.84% lower than the industry

Net income growth rate (3Y):

41.27%

Net income growth rate is -25.06% lower than the industry average net income growth rate

Dividend Analysis

Dividend payout rate: 10.03%

Dividend yeild: 3.40%

Previous Dividend: $0.15

Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15

Previous Dividend: $0.55

Expected next dividend best case: $0.15

Expected next dividend worst case: $0.14

Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13

Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.54%

Expected next dividend payment date: 16/08/2022

Expected next dividend record date: 08/08/2022

Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022

Previous dividend payment date: 18/05/2022

Previous dividend record date: 05/09/2022

Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022

Dividend History:

2022-05-06--$0.15

2021-11-04--$0.14

2021-05-06--$0.14

2022-02-04--$0.14

2021-07-30--$0.14

2021-02-05--$0.13

Dividend growth rate is -93.46% lower than the industry average

In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis

Debt to equity ratio:

22.73%

Net debt to equity ratio:

-15.98%

Debt to assets ratio:

2.41%

Net debt to assets ratio:

-1.69%

Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.55% below industry average

Ability to repay debt:

Interest coverage ratio:

6.91

Interest coverage ratio is 734.10% more than industry average

Looking forward:

Debt growth rate:

0.00%

-

Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%

Analysis of Key Statistics  

Correlation of price movement with the market:

0.475

Statistical significance of correlation:

LBAI has a statistically significant correlation with the market

Average Correlation of  the industry with the market:

0.501

Stock price is -5.21% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation

R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market): 

0.501

Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):

0.023

Covariance  of price movement with the market:

0.039

Kurtosis 

14.449

Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns

Skewness of returns:

-0.085

Returns are, approximately, symmetrical

Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of

LBAI

Gross Profit Margin Ratio:

-

Operating Profit Margin Ratio:

0.00%

-

Net Profit Margin Ratio:

-

Effective Tax Rate:

24.99%

Effective tax rate is 15.98% higher than the industry

Dupont Method

Net Profit Margin

Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):

×

ROA

=

×

8.06%

Return on equity (ROE) is -32.44% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage

Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):

0.85%

Return on assets (ROA) is -62.92% lower than the industry

Financial Leverage:

1.0x

Current Ratio:

0

-

Cash Conversion Cycle (days):

0

-

The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years

Stock based compensation to net income ratio:

1.64%

In-depth Efficiency  Analysis

Revenue generated per employee:

396.4K

Each employee generates 4% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee

EBITDA generated per employee: 

217.4K

Each employee generates -4% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee

Profit generated per employee: 

128.9K

Each employee generates -9% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee

Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee: 

41.7K

Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Assets/Capital per employee

3.7M

Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee

Research & Development (R&D) Analysis

-

-

Competitors/Peer firms of 

LBAI

REPUBLIC BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:RBCAA)

HOMESTREET, INC. (XNAS:HMST)

BMTC GROUP INC. (XTSE:GBT)

WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORPORATION (XNAS:WRLD)

MIDCAP FINANCIAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:MFIC)

Washington Trust Bancorp, Inc. (XNAS:WASH)

PREFERRED BANK (XNAS:PFBC)

NATIONAL WESTERN LIFE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:NWLI)

NORTHFIELD BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:NFBK)

Current Analyst Ratings

Strong buy�4%

Buy�4%