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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (XNYS:KOS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
KOS
Name:
KOSMOS ENERGY LTD. (XNYS:KOS)
Sector:
220.79M
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Andrew Inglis
Total Employees:
229
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -103.47% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.(KOS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.8
One Month Price Target:
$6.91
Six Month Price Target :
$7.44
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.74
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.9
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.85
This week:
$4.68
This month :
$2.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
455.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
48.75%
-58.97%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.19
$9.15
$2.41
$4.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.05
$5.11
$5.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
KOS
Sharpe Ratio:
4.15%
Comparison:
KOS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -9.67% lower than the industry
& ratio is 82.12% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
KOS
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.48%
Monthly returns:
5.93%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 15.85% above industry average
Classification:
KOS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
KOS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.93%
Weekly Volatility:
15.49%
Monthly Volatility:
30.99%
Yearly Volatility:
107.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.87%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -29.74% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.93%
Weekly VaR:
-31.15%
Monthly VaR:
-62.31%
How Much Can the price of
KOS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-52%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.28
This translates to price declining to:
$1.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
KOS is a 339.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 276.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 29.80% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
KOS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.262
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.785
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.538
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.416
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.41
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.258
Beta is 123.62% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is 39.77% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.487
Alpha is 9.56% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3102% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
KOS
Equity cost of capital:
0.224
Equity cost of capital is 32.37% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.50%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.56%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.56%
WACC is -7.45% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.98
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -36.02% below industry average
EPS:
$0.02
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
10.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -66.76% lower than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$5.23
EBITDA per share
$1.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
KOS
P/E Ratio:
16.92
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.77
P/E ratio is 43.85% higher than main peers & is -59.81% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $0.84
KOS is 707.35% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $3.82
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.40
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.71
Price to sales ratio is -65.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.78
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-19.64%
Net income growth rate is -102.76% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.48%
Dividend yeild: 1.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.05
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.05
Previous Dividend: $0.09
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.05
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 26/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 03/05/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 24/02/2020
Dividend History:
2020-03-04--$0.05
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-29--$0.05
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
444.81%
Net debt to equity ratio:
406.06%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
43.37%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -10.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.63
Interest coverage ratio is -16.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
24.11%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 4.31%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.444
Statistical significance of correlation:
KOS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is 12.62% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.154
Kurtosis
13.027
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.408
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
KOS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
36.53%
Operating profit margin is -2755.15% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Effective Tax Rate:
81.37%
Effective tax rate is 311.14% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
2.67%
Return on equity (ROE) is -68.61% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is -87.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
0.85
Current ratio is -57.39% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-55.3
Cash conversion cycle is -178.13% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
58.55%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
7.9M
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
3.3M
Each employee generates 34% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
62.6K
Each employee generates -85% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
964.2K
Each employee generates -1146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
18.5M
Each employee generates -1146% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
KOS
PBF ENERGY INC. (XNYS:PBF)
HOLLY ENERGY PTN UNT (XNYS:HEP)
COMSTOCK RESOURCES, INC. (XNYS:CRK)
DELEK LOGISTICS PARTNERS COM UNT (XNYS:DKL)
Euronav NV (XNYS:EURN)
WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORPORATION (XNYS:INT)
NS
CRESTWOOD EQUITY PARTNERS UNT (XNYS:CEQP)
PLAINS GP HOLDINGS, L.P (XNAS:PAGP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�33%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.81B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
974.61M
839.95M
-
104.84M
104.84M
-
69.87M
174.72M
10.07M
113.22M
560.33M
750.49M
662.82M
14.33M
76.95M
62.61M
14.33M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
- 85792.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.39M
Change in Working Capital :
45.93M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
359.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
329.63M
Investments in PP&E:
- 108834.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
337.83M
-
337.83M
213.27M
153.39M
89.69M
794.19M
4.03B
-
-
-
-
196.36M
4.23B
-
5.02B
224.59M
130.00M
117.21M
-
578.51M
933.11M
2.39B
585.69M
3.55B
-
4.49B
5.00M
- 1710992.00K
-
2.24B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.15B
536.32M
5.02B
-
2.52B
2.2B
-
118.22M
9.39M
- 107500.00K
-
-
- 642.00K
- 8491.00K
- 116633.00K
-
222.38M
397.28M
174.90M
329.63M
- 108834.00K
220.79M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
KOS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.13
$6.20
$7.37
$8.77
$10.42